Aircraft manufacturer Airbus estimates that by 2040, airlines in the Latin American region will need 2,460 new aircraft, as part of an expectation that some passenger markets will grow to double or even triple 2019 levels. This will also generate , a demand for 33,000 new pilots and 43,000 technicians in the next two decades.
Arturo Barreira, president of Airbus for Latin America and the Caribbean, said that with the expected number of aircraft, the region’s fleet in 2019 would practically double, going from 1,440 aircraft to 2,820 teams, considering 360 aircraft that would remain.
Of the 2,460 new aircraft, 56% (1,380) would be new additions, while the remainder (44%, equivalent to 1,080 aircraft) would be replacements for older equipment.
“We expect that in this period 242,000 million dollars of airline spending will be generated in the region,” Barreira said at a press conference. “50% would be basically for maintenance, while the rest would go to training and operation of the planes, and the improvement of services.”
Airbus is one of the main aircraft manufacturers in the world, together with the American company Boeing and the Brazilian company Embraer. In the Latin American region it has a market share of 60%, according to the company itself, with more than 700 aircraft operated by 17 airlines and 500 pieces of equipment still pending delivery.
In Mexico, the company had 50.3% of the aircraft market in 2021, with 156 aircraft operated, mainly on Viva Aerobus and Volaris airlines, whose fleets are entirely made up of Airbus equipment. These included the two most operated aircraft in the country, the a320 and the a320neo, which account for just over 38% of Mexico’s air fleet, according to data from the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC).
In line with this trend, it is expected that in the coming years almost 90% of the required aircraft will be small or single-aisle aircraft, such as the a320, while 7.7% of the aircraft will be medium category and 4% medium category. large, or double aisle.
According to the Airbus director, this responds to a forecast of the growth of the middle class in the region –“the most likely to fly”, says Barreira–, which would lead to the growth of domestic markets and would lead to travel per capita in the region will double, from 0.44 annual trips per capita to 0.87 in 2040. Similarly, air traffic is expected to increase by 1.8 times by 2040 in the region.
Brazil and Mexico, the largest markets in the region, would practically double in this indicator, going from 0.4 to 0.9 and from 0.5 to 0.9 annual trips per capita, respectively. In addition, Chile, the country with the best performance in this indicator, is expected to triple its growth, going from 1 to 2.9 trips per capita in the next 20 years.
“We see a lot of opportunity in the region to generate more air traffic. We see great potential in connections to the United States and intra-regionally,” said the manager, who added that its aircraft production – which was reduced from 60 to 40 pieces of equipment per month worldwide, due to the drop in demand – could recover and grow to 65 aircraft per month by the summer of 2023.
