According to the World Bank, corruption scandals have become one of the main causes of slow economic growth , as well as socioeconomic inequality. In total, they represent a cost of 2% of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Thanks to a new study, carried out by different universities (from Slovenia, Austria or Brazil) and research centers, it is possible to predict these dishonest acts through the use of networks . The results thus allow the development of a tool to detect corrupt practices and reduce the high cost of corruption for society .
In the project, the researchers created a dynamic network using Brazil’s compilation of 27 years of political corruption scandals (reflected in 65 documented cases) as a model and used time series analysis to study how the network evolves over the years. years . From 1987 to 2014, the model involves more than 400 nodes representing individuals, along with links connecting people who were involved in it.
Overall, the results suggest that such networks reveal a great deal of information about the complexities of these scandals . According to the director of the investigation, Matjaž Perc , “we show that applying network science methods reveals the essence of politically corrupt behavior.”
Among the findings, it can be seen how political scandals generally rise and fall at the same time as electoral cycles approach . In addition, these acts have been shown to involve small groups of people (approximately 8) for easy concealment. And as if that weren’t enough, the network makes it possible to identify individuals who have played roles in multiple scandals.
However, to test the veracity and predictive power of the network, the researchers applied different algorithms to predict missing links based on the similarity between nodes .
They found that through this process of deleting and rebuilding data, an algorithm is achieved that predicts 25% of the links between corrupt .
“We show empirically that corruption is reduced to selfish behavior in small groups that exist in hierarchical networks of small countries. In short, politically corrupt behavior reveals almost all its secrets when analyzed in the realm of corruption networks, ” says Perc .
In the future, the scientists plan to apply these techniques to a problem with which they are especially familiar: the ethics of research funding , especially in Slovenia.
Spain: integrity failure
According to the latest data presented by Transparency International , the global civil society organization that works to fight corruption in the world, Spain is ranked 41st in the corruption ranking of a total of 176 countries analyzed.
The seven surveys on which the index is based also indicate that Spain has a comparatively high corruption situation in relation to countries in the rest of Europe . Although this situation is not so worrying if we compare it with the situation of the 176 countries, as a whole, it begins to be alarming at the level of the euro zone due to our lack of reaction and acceptance of the decline , according to experts.
Reference: “The dynamical structure of political corruption networks.” Haroldo V. Ribeiro . Journal of Complex Networks (2018). DOI: 10.1093 / comnet / cny002
