Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has become the talk of hundreds of conversations. How could a plane with hundreds of passengers disappear mid-flight? What has happened? Will it be possible to find the black box? The aeronautical engineer and professor of the Department of Bioengineering and Aerospace Engineering of the Carlos III University of Madrid (UC3M), Manuel Soler Arnedo, answers all these questions. In fact, his lines of research are aimed at optimizing the trajectories of aircraft, air navigation and air traffic management.
What could have happened to make this plane disappear?
Manuel Soler Arnedo: First of all, I would like to point out that we must avoid speculation and let the competent authorities in civil aviation work, in this case, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). In particular, ICAO Annex 13 establishes the accident and incident investigation protocol. Therefore, the authorities will establish the causes in a timely manner and, where appropriate, will legislate to prevent such causes from being repeated in the future.
What do the facts say?
Manuel Soler Arnedo: According to the facts, it is clear that all the communication systems broke down (voice and data), with which the plane would have been “mute” and “deaf” and could not send or receive any kind. Communication. In particular, the “transponder” (a device that responds to interrogations from the secondary radar and allows controllers to monitor the aircraft’s license plate, position and speed) would have been out of service. Therefore, at that moment the plane would disappear from the controllers’ screens.
What could this disappearance be due to?
Manuel Soler Arnedo: The causes can be several: for technical reasons, that all communication buses break down (something statistically unlikely); or because someone with experience and knowledge had proceeded to deactivate it, either expressly for their own interest and risk or due to an emergency in the cabin (the latter could be the first response to an emergency situation related to some failure, also highly unlikely, in the aircraft’s electrical / electronic system that could lead to fire). All the hypotheses are open: we must not rule out an intentional kidnapping or an accident, but we must be prudent and wait for facts.
Could I have flown the plane for 5 or 7 hours, as discussed?
Manuel Soler Arnedo: It could be, both with a pilot at the controls (not following in this case the established flight plan and with objectives, therefore, unknown), or autonomously, having previously connected the autopilot (which can usually be connected to maintain certain flight conditions and, for example, could continue to function in a hypothetical case of loss of consciousness by the crew). The fuel, taking into account both the fuel destined for the nominal flight and the reserves that the regulations establish (for alternative airport, contingency and, additionally, an amount at the discretion of the commander) would be sufficient.
What is the most important thing now, from your point of view?
Manuel Soler Arnedo: One issue that should concern us a lot, regardless of the causes of the accident, is the location of the aircraft. The pertinent question now is: Where has the plane headed? It seems obvious that it has not traveled congested airspace or airspace under military control. Mention apart from the secondary radar, there are primary radars for typically military use. They are more rudimentary radars that detect intruding targets without the need for a response (without the need for a transponder). In other words, if it had flown over airspace under military radar coverage, it would have identified it even in real time. Therefore, the search areas would thus be limited in some way.
How long is there to locate the plane?
Manuel Soler Arnedo: In the first instance, exhaust the 30 days of battery life in the “black box” (which is actually orange and in aeronautical terminology is called Flight Data Recorder; FDR), a period in which it will continue to emit ultrasounds that would allow localized. That is, as long as you are not in the deep sea above 10,000-15,000 feet, in which case the signal is not easily noticeable. Therefore, now the first thing is to locate the area of the accident to detect the ultrasound. Once this period of time has expired, the search will be complicated, but let no one doubt: you will find yourself. As an example, cite Air France flight 447 (AF447), whose black boxes were recovered about two years later and the causes clarified.
What will the plane’s black box reveal?
Manuel Soler Arnedo: All the necessary data to clarify the causes of the accident will have been recorded in the FDR, such as communications between pilot and controller, conversations between the crew, position data, speed, etc. Then and only then will we move from speculation to fact. It should be remembered that aviation continues to be the safest means of transport (in terms of accidents per trip made) and that all agents involved in the air transport industry have safety as their main requirement, both in design and manufacture. the operation and other aspects.
