Storm season could hit Madagascar harder than ever
Only two days after the much-anticipated cyclone Batsirai crossed the African island of Madagascar, did the full extent of the devastation become apparent. “It was as if we had been subjected to a bomb attack,” reports Willy Raharijaona, the technical advisor to a high-ranking politician, from the eastern Malagan coastal town of Nosy Varika: “The town is 95 percent destroyed, the roofs of the brick houses have blown off and the wooden huts Dismantled.” Fianarantsoa was also largely devastated, reports a resident of the city, which is around 200 kilometers further inland. “Power poles have fallen, trees have been uprooted, the whole of Fianarantsoa is under water,” says Nirina Rahaingosoa.
So far, 20 deaths have been confirmed, says Anja Andriamorasata from the aid organization “Humanité & Inclusion” in an interview with this newspaper. It is to be expected that this number will increase significantly. More than 55,000 people have lost their homes: this number will certainly have to be corrected upwards. Cyclone Ana swept across Madagascar ten days ago, killing more than 60 people and destroying 130,000 huts and houses.
“Batsirai” reached the Malagasy coast hundreds of kilometers south of “Ana”: That storm had swept directly over the capital Antananarivo, causing considerable devastation there. With wind speeds of more than 160 kilometers per hour, “Batsirai” was not only classified as a storm but also as a “serious tropical cyclone”, the second highest category of a cyclone. According to estimates, up to 600 liters of precipitation per square meter fell in its course. According to Madagascan environment minister Vahinala Raharinirina, Batsirai was the strongest storm in 17 years. Numerous villages were completely washed away.
After all, “Batsirai” also brought a certain relief: In the south of Madagascar there has been a hundred-year drought for six years, where only an average of 16.5 centimeters of precipitation has been measured annually. However, the drought is far from over, says Anja Andriamorasata: the storm has actually caused further damage.
Cyclones are not uncommon in Madagascar: Between November and April, dozens of storms tend to form in the western part of the Indian Ocean. However, their strength and frequency are now increasing, experts say: almost 150 people were killed in three unusually strong storms in Madagascar in 2017 and 2018. The balance sheet threatens to be even worse this year.
Scientists dispute the question of whether the six-year drought is also related to global warming. According to a recently published study by the “World Weather Attribution” (WWA), a global association of climatologists, global warming only plays a minor role in the famine that affects around one million people. On the other hand, the influence of poverty and the Covid pandemic should be estimated higher. The increasing intensity of the cyclones is different: this phenomenon is generally attributed to global warming.
