US aircraft maker Boeing forecasts global equipment delivery to reach 41,170 new aircraft by 2040, nearly doubling the current commercial fleet over the next two decades. Short- and medium-range aircraft aim to concentrate three quarters of future deliveries, while other segments will grow at more moderate rates, such as cargo.
Although the covid-19 pandemic had an effect on the delivery of new aircraft, it was temporary. For David Franson, Boeing’s regional director of market forecasts, the commercial air fleet was quickly reactivated thanks to strategic decisions by airlines, which chose not to remove their oldest equipment – as expected at the start of the health contingency. but to keep them in order to put them into service quickly when demand picks up.
The forecast for the next two decades is that Latin America concentrates 5% of deliveries, with around 2,880 new aircraft . Short- and medium-range aircraft would be the fastest growing, a segment led by the 737 MAX team, which is operated in the country by Aeroméxico.
“Mexico has a very large domestic market, there are probably several opportunities to serve secondary markets particularly by connecting, say, one of the northern states of the United States to a secondary city in Mexico, to transport people for their vacations or to visit Mexico. friends and family”, explains the specialist to Expansión .
The North American market – made up of the United States and Canada – would concentrate most of the new deliveries, with 23% of the total. Europe, Asia (excluding China) and China would each account for 21% of new deliveries, with strong growth expected particularly in China , which would have a larger fleet than the European region.
Some 60% of the aircraft in Boeing’s forecast are growth while the remaining 40% are replacement aircraft , an industry practice to reduce operating costs such as fuel.
Part of the growth is determined by people’s intention to travel, which is linked to the level of GDP per capita in each country: the higher the income, the more propensity there is to travel.
For segments such as cargo aircraft , this is a factor added to others such as the growth of industrial production and trade, so a more moderate growth is estimated in this segment, mainly focused on single-seater aircraft. corridor for the Latin American region.
“For the capabilities of the airlines in the region, it is a good option. The 747 works for operations from Asia, with large volumes; In Latin America there are some markets that support wide-body aircraft, but rather we think that we are going to see more express airlines transporting small packages, coming from the United States with Amazon , for example, or from Brazil with Mercado Libre . Small shipments that go from the warehouses to the consumer”, says Franson.
The demand for more aircraft will also mean the need for more crew, which translates into a forecast of 118,000 additional workers for Latin America by 2040, mainly cabin crew (48,000), pilots (35,000) and technicians (35,000).