NewsCorona autumn wave? Numbers are skyrocketing - experts see...

Corona autumn wave? Numbers are skyrocketing – experts see a dangerous trend

Created: 05.10.2022 Updated: 10/05/2022 2:09 p.m

Grafische Darstellung Corona-Virus Corona-Virus Mikroskopische Ansicht SARS-CoV-2-Variante Omi
Corona autumn number 3 is approaching. New variants (symbol photo) are already on the way. © imago

The corona numbers in Germany are increasing significantly. Is an autumn wave building? The values provide an incomplete picture of the infection situation, but there is a trend.

Berlin – “It got me too” – a sentence that many people are apparently hearing right now. The highly contagious corona virus is still rampant. The Oktoberfest in Munich, like other folk festivals before it, drives the infection dynamics. In the state capital in Bavaria, the occupancy of beds with Covid-infected people doubled during the Wiesn.

Corona in Germany: RKI reports 134,000 new infections

133,532 new corona infections (previous week: 95,811) and 128 deaths (previous week: 138) have been reported to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI). Nationwide, the incidence has risen to 414.0. This emerges from the data from the RKI Corona dashboard on Wednesday (October 5, 2022, as of 3:08 a.m.).

Corona case numbers from October 3, 2022

Coronavirus new infections 133,532
Corona incidence 414.0
Corona deaths 128

These corona numbers should be treated with caution. After the long weekend, many health authorities provided numbers. Experts assume a high number of unreported cases. Many infected people do not have a PCR test done and only positive PCR tests are included in the statistics. The RKI itself points out daily fluctuations, especially at the beginning of the week and at weekends, and recommends a look at the detailed RKI weekly report, which the institute regularly publishes on Thursdays.

The number of cases in Germany is already increasing faster than ever before in recent years

Cornelius Roemer

According to corona experts, the corona numbers show a clear trend. RKI boss Lothar Wieler classified the current corona situation in Germany last week (September 30, 2022) as “stable” – that could change.

“The number of cases in Germany is already increasing faster than ever before in recent years, although new variants are not even having much of an effect,” writes physicist and data analyst Cornelius Römer on Twitter on October 3, 2022. “The next few months could be a bumpy one Be on the move.” Römer also posts a screenshot of the RKI pandemic radar. It shows that the 7-day incidence has already changed by 58.11 percent compared to the previous day. Various corona values can be found on the RKI pandemic radar. Among other things, “change in 7-day incidence to the previous week”.

Third Corona autumn in Germany

A look at the current values for “change in the 7-day incidence compared to the previous week” shows how the line rises steeply and virtually rushes into the basement on October 5th. The area on the graphic has a gray background. “The last 2 days are highlighted in gray because the values can be underestimated to a certain extent due to a delay in transmission”, can be read in a special information dialog window. The weekly comparison is still lagging behind due to a lack of data.

Screenshot vom RKI-Pandemieradar (5. Oktober): Die grafische Darstellung  „Änderung 7-Tage-Inzidenz zu Vorwoche“ zeigt einen steilen Kurs nach oben.
Screenshot from the RKI pandemic radar (October 5): The graphical representation “Change in 7-day incidence compared to the previous week” shows a steep upward trend. © Screenshot RKI Pandemic Radar

Corona in Germany: What is the situation in the intensive care units?

The corona incidence is a factor for assessing the infection process. According to experts, the number of seriously ill Covid patients in the clinics is much more important. 1,294 corona patients are currently being treated in the intensive care units in Germany. Of these, 356 must be artificially ventilated. This emerges from the data of the DIVI intensive care register on Wednesday (October 5th, as of 12:05 p.m.). Compared to the previous day, an increase of 81 corona patients. According to the latest RKI daily report, on Tuesday (October 4th) there were still 1,213 COVID-19 cases. At the end of September, the number exceeded 1,000.

Grafische Darstellung Corona-Virus Corona-Virus Mikroskopische Ansicht SARS-CoV-2-Variante Omi
Corona autumn number 3 is approaching. New variants (symbol photo) are already on the way. © imago

What comes after Omikron BA.5? Subvariant BQ.1.1. or BA.2.75?

In Germany, the omicron subline BA.5, which has been dominant since mid-June, has almost completely displaced other variants, the RKI reports in its most recent weekly report. Their total share was 96 percent in week 38/2022. “The variants BA.2 and BA.4 accounted for only a very small proportion of sequenced sublines this week,” writes the RKI.

New Corona variants are already at the start: Omikron BA.2 is developing into BA.2.75

However, a BA.2 descendant called BA.2.75 is under surveillance. Even sub-variants of it have appeared recently. The new variants trick the immune system.

“The increased spread of BA.2.75 (including sublines) has been observed worldwide since June 2022,” according to the RKI. In the sample for Germany, a total of 114 genome sequences of these lines would have been identified since week 25/2022. The proportion is less than 1 percent.

Omicron variant BA.5 spawned BQ.1.1

But Omikron BA.5 is also evolving – just like BQ.1.1. In the UK, the Omicron BA.5 derivative is under observation and on the rise. It is initially unclear whether the coronavirus variants will prevail worldwide. It is normal for viruses to mutate. The Sars-CoV-2 is no exception. In order to survive, viruses adapt to spread as quickly as possible. (ml)

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