From the dream of snowy Christmas? At least the chances of a party in white are much worse than they were years ago. Climate change is to blame.
Offenbach – Climate change is reducing the prospect of a White Christmas in many regions of Germany.
A comparison of the reference periods 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2020 shows, according to the German Weather Service (DWD), that the chances of this – with a blanket of snow on all three days (December 24th to 26th) – on average in Germany by 13 percent and regionally even decreased by up to 44 percent.
According to the information, the south of Germany is particularly affected, where just a few decades ago there was snow almost every second year at Christmas. “That’s not surprising. Climate change with rising temperatures is driving the romantic White Christmas out of Germany step by step, ”said DWD spokesman Uwe Kirsche on the data.
Chances different in different cities
The DWD has recently calculated the decrease in the probability of a White Christmas for seven cities in Germany: In Berlin, the statistical chance afterwards fell by exactly ten percent, as did in Hamburg. But while the probability only decreased by 3.8 degrees in Leipzig, it was 19.5 percent in Munich, 12.2 percent in Freiburg and 11.8 percent in Frankfurt / Main.
That means: Statistically speaking, most people in Germany can only look forward to snow on the three public holidays every ten years. “Although the trend is clear, the variability of the climate gives reason to hope for an exception every year,” said Kirsche. However, the DWD’s meteorologists could estimate ten days before Christmas at the earliest whether snow would fall and stay there.
It is similar in neighboring Alpine countries: Studies by the DWD, the Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss and the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) show that the winters in Germany, Austria and Switzerland became warmer in the long term at all altitudes. In the future, this trend is likely to continue, it said.
The higher, the more likely
At low altitudes, the global warming will significantly reduce the amount of snow. After all: At higher altitudes above about 1500 to 2000 meters, according to the information, sufficient natural snow for winter sports and mostly White Christmas can be expected in the next few decades.
Nonetheless, the mildest winters in measurement history have been recorded in many European countries in recent years. In Germany, for example, six of the ten warmest winters in the 21st century were recorded. In Switzerland, the winter 2019/20 was the warmest nationwide average since the introduction of the official measuring network in 1864. In Austria, for example in Vienna, Innsbruck and Graz, the number of days with a blanket of snow has increased by around 30 in the last 90 years Percent decreased.
“Climate change in the Alps does not stop at the political borders,” emphasized Mischa Croci-Maspoli, Head of the Climate Department at the Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss. Tobias Fuchs, DWD Board Member for Climate and Environment, expected the intensive cooperation between the weather services of Germany, Austria and Switzerland to develop sustainable and holistic strategies to improve the regions’ resilience and adaptability. dpa
