Despite the fact that the vaccination rate in our country is good , and that there is already a large part of the adult population with the full schedule of the coronavirus vaccine, or at least one dose, the health authorities are concerned about the disproportionate increase of infections in recent weeks among the young population.
The macro outbreak detected in Mallorca, which already has more than 1,000 infected and is affecting several autonomous communities, has made experts think about the real risk of a possible fifth wave this summer.
The few safety measures that young people have shown and the advance of the Delta variant arriving from India , are two key factors for the advance of the coronavirus in the coming months and there are already experts who predict a possible fifth wave at the end of July.
The virus out of control
Professor Antonio Guirao, an expert from the University of Murcia , who collaborates with the Ministry of Health on the behavior of the virus, has just published a report that points to this possible fifth wave. Under the title ‘Fifth wave risk during the summer’, the expert warns that the forecast to vaccinate the youngest (12 to 29 years) could come too late if infections continue at the rate they have taken in recent days.
If the trend consolidates, Guirao sets his sights on the United Kingdom which, despite having a high percentage of vaccinated adult population, is registering more than 20,000 daily infections among the young population. “A sub-epidemic can be triggered with the virus totally out of control. An exponential increase in the incidence in the unvaccinated adult and young population is already being observed, ”warns the expert in his report for the Carlos III Health Institute.
“The risk at this time is very high and the situation could become very serious” adds Antonio Guirao, who gives as an example the ease of expansion of the coronavirus in the macro outbreak of Mallorca.
Fifth wave in summer?
According to the Guirao report, if the upward trend in infections is consolidated in these weeks, it is estimated that at the end of July Spain will once again register figures of between 10,000 and 15,000 daily infections, something that would once again show that a fifth wave it would be affecting our country in this summer of 2021.
At the moment, yesterday the Ministry of Health notified 12,345 new cases of coronavirus, a figure that increased the accumulated incidence by 17 points.
