Experts are warning of the fourth corona wave in autumn. Where did people get infected last year? A new study sheds light on the darkness.
Berlin / Paris – “The fourth wave has begun,” says a paper that Lothar Wieler, head of the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), presented at a conference with the heads of the state chancelleries. Many other experts also assume that the number of corona cases will increase significantly towards autumn. But where do people get infected? It is worth taking a look at the autumn months of last year.
In October 2020, the second corona wave hit the Federal Republic with full force. While only just under 2500 infections and a few low double-digit deaths were reported on the first day of the month, the number of cases exploded in the coming weeks. At the end of October there were almost 15,000 new infections per day.
Where do people get infected with Corona? RKI data provide little information
The death toll also rose sharply, but with a delay. In January 2021, more than 1,000 people died regularly every day. Germany, which to date had come through the corona pandemic comparatively lightly, was shocked.
It is difficult for the health authorities to find out where people infected with the corona virus were infected. The RKI can therefore only publish data that is hardly meaningful. For calendar week 28 (July 12, 2021 to July 18, 2021), the institute assigned 7647 cases to the item “Not recorded in outbreak” – the largest category.
Infections in private households follow at a great distance. The RKI registered 529 cases of infection there in the week. Other places of infection, on the other hand, appear strongly underrepresented. The official figures show that just 49 people were infected with the corona virus on public transport. Follow-up is very difficult for employees in the health authorities. After all, it is easy to find out if someone is infected or not in the group of friends or family. However, it is difficult to determine whether an infected person is sitting on a bus, suburban train or tram.
Corona study: These people had a higher risk of becoming infected in autumn 2020
A French research team from the Pasteur Institute and the Sorbonne University in Paris has tackled this problem. In cooperation with the health insurers, they contacted all people who were registered as corona cases by the authorities in France between October 27 and November 30, 2020. As the scientists report in the journal The Lancet, they asked what contacts they had ten days before the onset of the disease and what activities they were engaged in during that period.
Of around 694,000 people contacted, 42,871 people provided information that was relevant to the study. The result: People who live in a household with several people had a greater risk of contracting corona. Parents whose children go to school are also more likely to contract the virus – with the exception of elementary school. The same applies to children who attend a daycare center. They and their parents were also at increased risk of contracting Covid-19.
In which places the risk of corona infection was high last autumn
The experts also found that private meetings, going to bars and restaurants, and exercising in halls or gyms favored the spread of the coronavirus among those surveyed. “We found no increase in risk associated with going to shops, cultural or religious gatherings, or using transportation other than carpooling,” the team wrote in Lancet magazine.
The researchers point out that the French government had imposed strict corona rules during the study period. They do not want to give the all-clear for the less affected areas. “Findings related to religious gatherings, cultural gatherings or university courses should be viewed with caution due to the small number of people who visited these locations during the study period,” the team warned. (Tim Vincent Dicke)
List of rubric lists: © Kay Nietfeld / dpa
