The dominant delta variant could soon be replaced by the omicron variant of the coronavirus – with devastating consequences.
Frankfurt – The Omikron variant, which was first discovered in South Africa, has long since arrived in Germany. Above all, it is considered dangerous because it is considered to be significantly more infectious and the vaccination protection – at least without a booster vaccination – is considered to be lower. However, according to mathematician Kristan Schneider, the Omikron wave has only just begun. With his calculations, he shows how the corona infection situation * could develop in the coming period.
Since the appearance of the new variant, the number of cases has increased significantly in many countries – for example in Denmark and Great Britain. Germany will not be spared either, predicts Schneider. He assumes that omicron will spread across the board in a short time and become the predominant mutation. In order to show how this spread occurs and which measures are necessary to prevent it, scientists create so-called model calculations.
Omikron variant: 700,000 new corona infections per day would be possible
Schneider, who is a professor at the Faculty of Applied Computer and Biosciences at the Mittweida University of Applied Sciences in Saxony, also made such an invoice. This shows that the current number of new infections per day would increase massively with the spread of the Omikron variant. The previous peak of registered new infections is 75,000 at the end of November – there are also numerous unregistered infections. With Omikron, however, this number could increase many times over: “In a worst-case scenario, up to 700,000 new infections per day are easily possible if the measures remain as they are now,” Schneider warns ZDF.
The reason for this is the assumption that the new mutation is more than twice as contagious as the delta variant. However, these are only assumptions: “We will only have reasonable data when the wave has fully rushed in. But then it will be too late to act ”, said the professor. His calculations are therefore based on different assumptions about infectivity. The more infectious the omicron variant, the stronger the fourth wave. The infectivity also influences when Omikron displaces other variants – and makes up the majority of infections.
Omikron: Politicians must act now to curb the spread
Assuming that Omikron has a higher infectivity of 60 percent, as many researchers suspect, this would be the case as early as January 21, 2022. But even if the mutation is only 20 percent more infectious, according to Schneider’s model calculations, it would make up the majority of infections by February 22, 2022 at the latest. It cannot yet be said with certainty whether the course of the disease is significantly more severe with Omikron. One thing is clear, however: people who have been vaccinated and who have recovered are much better protected from severe disease than those who have not been vaccinated. A higher vaccination rate could cushion a rapid increase in the nine infections.
In order to prevent the intensive care units from collapsing and the exceeding of test capacities as well as to protect public life, one also has to react immediately, according to Schneider: “It is sensible to close mass events, theaters, cinemas and large restaurants because it is very easy to Events can come. In the initial phase of Omikron distribution, this can have devastating consequences, ”he warned ZDF. In addition to Schneider, numerous other scientists are also calling on politicians * to act as quickly as possible to curb the spread of the corona variant. (tt) * fr.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
