The organization México Evalúa describes Mexican energy policy as a paradox and assures that the time has come to abandon it. “A paradox is, by linguistic definition, a strange, irrational and absurd idea that appears to be true,” reads a document published this morning. The organization says in the report that the policy undertaken during the six-year term will not be enough to achieve energy sovereignty and that, instead, it is moving the country away from an energy transition and integration with Canada and the United States.
“ The energy model as it currently stands would not allow us to achieve sovereignty, it is not only gasoline, it is also gas, we have such a high dependency and very few investment forecasts to be able to invest in technology and take advantage of it. The sovereignist vision does not help at all and puts a lot of pressure on the decision-making of autonomous organizations or the boards of directors of state companies,” says Ana Lilia Moreno, a researcher at the organization and one of the authors of the report.
According to calculations compiled by the organization, even if the state-owned Pemex refineries work at 80% of their capacity, adding production from the new Dos Bocas refinery and that from the Deer Park complex, the country will continue to import around 20 % of fuel consumed. “ In an optimistic scenario, Mexico would have to continue importing fuels at approximately 20% and only if Dos Bocas produces and the refineries operate at 80%. In a more pessimistic scenario, we would be importing half of what we need”, says the researcher.
Today, as a whole, the complexes of the state company operate at less than 50% of their capacity, despite the modernization work that the federal administration has undertaken.
In the document, the organization says that the policy, which seeks to achieve self-sufficiency as the ultimate goal, has left aside the production of natural gas and that, contrary to the discourse, the import of fuel has increased because production is practically without changes. At the end of last year, the country imported 10.8% more gas than a year before.
In general, purchases to the United States have increased significantly during the administration. Last year, Mexico imported around 42,000 million dollars of US energy products, the highest figure in nine years, according to data from the Energy Information Agency of that country (EIA, for its acronym in English).
The criticism of the organization is launched in the middle of the consultation period demanded by Canada and the United States against the Mexican energy policy. México Evalúa says in the report that a less radical discourse could help the country promote its energy independence while continuing to integrate with its trading partners.
“The idea of taking advantage of geographical advantages to promote trade and closer relations between Canada, the United States and Mexico, although not new, has not been completed,” says the document. “Mexico could take firmer and faster steps to implement policies that contribute to building a climate of certainty for capital.”
México Evalúa qualifies the Agreement between Mexico, Canada and the United States as “the obvious solution” to reduce energy prices and direct the country to cleaner energy sources. “The issue of importing is so demonized when it is something that is needed, when we already have such a stable and experienced energy integration. Our dependence on fuels from North America, if we see it more from a more systemic approach of the three countries, is perhaps something more functional. So, for the purposes of energy independence, we can have a reasonable percentage of imports and I think that would make the president’s speech much more flexible,” says Moreno. “So that way we would accept that we need to import gasoline, but without adhering to a too radical approach to sovereignty, such a vision could be more compatible with the concept of integration and could help in the T-MEC negotiations.”
