The US economy , the largest in the world and Mexico’s main trading partner, will enter a recession starting in the last quarter of 2022 and will last until the first half of 2023 , according to estimates by the British financial group Barclays .
The first data of zero economic growth are expected to start in the fourth quarter of this year and that there will be a 0.5% contraction in the second and third quarters of 2023.
“Yes, we are seeing a not very deep recession in the United States, but a long one,” said Gabriel Casillas, chief economist at Barclays.
The economist stressed that the Federal Reserve (Fed), which is the central bank in the United States, should cause this recessive environment because inflation does not give in, since it is at its worst level in 40 years.
Impact of the recession in Mexico
Given the recession that will occur, Mexico will suffer the consequences with a lower dynamism of the economy.
Barclays estimates that the economy will grow 1.2% in 2023 due to the slowdown with its main trading partner.
The entity also ruled out a cut in interest rates next year by Banxico because inflation will continue to be a problem even if it costs economic growth.
“My base scenario does not contemplate cuts in these interests in 2023 from the Bank of Mexico, there is still a lot of uncertainty about inflation,” Casillas said.
Barclays estimates that Banxico’s rate will close this 2022 at 10.5% and that it will end at 10.75% by 2023.
For inflation, Casillas estimates that the peak has already occurred and is expected to close the year at 8.2%, while for 2023 inflation is expected at 4.4%.
The Ministry of Finance estimates that the Mexican economy will grow 3% next year, a level higher than the 2.4% that it expects the gross domestic product (GDP) to grow at the end of 2022.
