Why Chile said NO to the new Constitution

The controversies within the drafting assembly and content considered very extremist were undermining support for the process, to which was also added a drop in support for the government of progressive President Gabriel Boric , whose popularity has suffered a sharp decline since he took office. in March.

In addition, some contents of the same text were crossed out as extreme, not only by sectors of the right, but by various members of the center-left.

These are some of the reasons why Chile said no to the draft constitution submitted to a plebiscite.

1. The contents of the proposal

The 388-article text was considered cutting-edge by several analysts, but they warned that it also contained proposals that part of the population considered too radical and generated fear, especially politically.

“There were certain contents within the proposed constitutional text that generated resistance from broad sectors of society and increased levels of fear and uncertainty,” said Marcelo Mella, a political scientist at the University of Santiago.

Mella highlighted above all the change to the political system proposed by the text, which eliminated the Senate and established in its place a Chamber of the Regions to evaluate “regional agreement” laws.

Many saw in this measure the danger of a loss of veto power for the opposition. The text also allowed consecutive presidential elections.

Other controversial proposals include the right to abortion and considering water and health as human rights.

“A part of the Constitution is very ‘millennial’ and those ‘millennial’ values are not the demand of the most traditional part,” said sociologist Marta Lagos.

Political analyst Cristóbal Bellolio told the Reuters agency that the “indigenous” ingredient of the proposal was two key factors.

“The Constitution was very identitarian, there was a kind of resistance, rejection, to a text that seemed to give the native peoples a pre-eminence that they had never had in Chile,” he said.

Among its contents, the proposed Constitution defined Chile as a plurinational state and granted territorial autonomy to indigenous communities, among other regulations.

2. A bad evaluation of the government of Gabriel Boric

Boric, who took office on March 11, has seen the evaluation of his management drop rapidly to 38%, the same percentage that obtained the “Approve”.

With a very active government and accusations by the opposition of electoral interventionism, the result of the plebiscite was linked to the president’s performance.

“There is an important punishment vote that must be taken into account,” says Moreno.

Following the election results, the president stated that he would make adjustments to his government team in the coming days and invited the opposition to discuss how to channel a new constitutional process.

The people of Chile “today have given us a strong message so that now we can come to an agreement,” said the young president in a speech from the government palace after hearing the results.

“You can rest assured that the path to a new constitution will never be an obstacle to responding to the urgencies that you have raised for us,” he added, announcing that he will make adjustments to his government team.

Experts and analysts agree that the result harms the president and his executive. Boric is expected to announce cabinet changes as early as Monday.

“It is a strong blow for the first year of Boric’s government, who decided to bet his political capital on ‘approval,'” says political analyst and professor at the O’Higgins State University (UOH) Juan Pablo Araya.

“It will be very complex to implement the government program and maintain unity and stability in the government coalition,” he adds.

According to Araya, the new scenario precipitates the need to execute a change in his cabinet because “it is necessary to reach broad agreements and there are members who have very worn political capital.”

The Minister of the Interior, Izkia Siches, is one of the names that has a chance of coming out. The new cabinet will have the challenge of managing a new stage of the process.

3. The bad reputation of the constitutional convention

The text was written by a convention of 154 members —with a joint composition, with seats reserved for indigenous peoples and a majority of independents— that operated with much controversy since its installation in July 2021.

The opening session itself was interrupted several times by protests from members.

“More than the result of the text itself, what people had been evaluating badly for several weeks was the way in which this process had developed,” Marco Moreno, an analyst at the Central University, explained to AFP, describing “excesses” and “misconduct of many conventional”.

For example, an investigation by the newspaper La Tercera revealed in September 2021 that one of the vice presidents, Rodrigo Rojas Vade, had invented a false cancer. Citizens who felt betrayed, since Rojas Vede had also been one of the faces of the social outbreak of 2019.

4. The voters who were not heard

All the polls gave the “Rejection” as the winner, but none anticipated the great difference, attributed by analysts to the so-called “spiral of silence”, which occurs when, out of fear or mistrust, voters do not make their position known to the pollsters.

In this case, with compulsory voting and the voting of more than 13 million voters (out of a list of 15 million), it is estimated that the polls and opinion studies did not consider some three million voters.

Nor did any survey or study expect such a high turnout to be registered, close to 80%.

“Practically everyone who had to vote” voted and “that was not in any analysis,” says Moreno.

5. A slowdown in the economy

After a record growth of 11.7% in 2021, supported by early withdrawals from pension funds and state aid to face the pandemic, the Chilean economy entered a phase of slowdown and high inflation (13% per year).

“When our country decided to open the constitutional process (…) it did not have the level of economic crisis that the country has today. So, the same people can have a risk assessment that is different, changing economic conditions in such a dramatic way Marcelo Mella added.

JP Morgan bank said the election result should have a positive impact on markets due to less uncertainty and lower risk premiums ahead with expectations that the result could temper its plans.

“A more gradual and moderate reform push would help mitigate the dimension of uncertainty associated with the government’s economic and financial agenda,” the bank said.

With information from AFP, Reuters and EFE