Climate change threatens humanity and there is limited time to turn things around. That is the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. He says what is needed now.
Geneva – More heat waves, droughts and heavy rain: Man-made climate change is accelerating, with devastating consequences, as the new report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change shows.
It shows more clearly than ever before how rising greenhouse gas emissions are threatening the planet. The sea level rises faster, the ice at the poles and glaciers melt faster.
The desired goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees above the pre-industrial period as far as possible will, according to the model calculations, probably be exceeded in the next 20 years, even with the strictest climate protection measures.
One of the authors, Jochem Marotzke from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, emphasized that no statement was made about the individual year 2030. “We’re talking about 20-year periods,” he told the German press agency. If, for example, the period 2023 to 2042 is considered, its midpoint is simply the beginning of the 2030s. “What we as authors have struggled with is to write it down in such a way that it does not create the impression that a single year could mark the exceeding,” said Marotzke.
In total, more than 230 scientists have evaluated around 14,000 climate studies for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that have appeared since the last report of this type in 2013.
People would have to prepare for more extreme weather events such as floods and heat because of the rising temperatures, the report said. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does not mention individual catastrophes, but extreme events mean floods such as recently in Germany or extreme heat such as in south-eastern Europe and western Canada.
The 1.5 degree target is in the Paris Climate Agreement of 2015. The states want to keep the warming well below two degrees compared to the pre-industrial level (1850-1900), but if possible already at 1.5 degrees. So far, the warming has been around 1.1 degrees, with regional differences. In Germany it is already 1.6 degrees. The past six years have been the warmest since measurements began.
Science says that people can still turn things around and prevent the worst consequences. “If we reduce emissions quickly, we have a good chance of meeting the 2-degree target,” said one of the authors, Jochem Marotzke from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. For this to happen, climate neutrality would have to be achieved by 2070 at the latest. Even with good climate protection, the sea level is likely to be up to 62 centimeters higher than 1995-2014 according to the report at the end of the century. Climate neutrality means that only as much greenhouse gas is emitted as sinks can absorb.
“The planet is in mortal danger and with it its inhabitants,” warned Federal Environment Minister Svenja Schulze (SPD). Germany wants to create climate neutrality by 2045, and other countries should present their plans for this at the World Climate Conference in Glasgow in November. “We know how we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” said Schulze: “With a quick move away from coal, oil and gas, with the expansion of solar and wind power and the production of green hydrogen as a climate-friendly energy source.”
However, the black-red federal government has not yet been able to agree on higher expansion targets for wind and solar energy. Schulze indirectly accused the Union of blocking the expansion of wind and solar power. The Ministry of Economic Affairs – led by Minister Peter Altmaier from the CDU – is not advancing renewable energies sufficiently.
The Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg called on politicians to take courageous decisions. The worst consequences of climate change could still be prevented. “But not if we carry on like today, and not without treating the crisis like a crisis,” she wrote on Twitter and Instagram.
“The time window of the next legislative period must be used to set the decisive course for the better,” demanded Christoph Bals from the Germanwatch organization. “Climate science shows the epochal challenge we are facing.” “We now have to radically change course in order to fight the climate crisis and to preserve our livelihood,” demanded the Federation for the Environment and Nature Conservation Germany (BUND).
The report makes it unequivocally clear that practically all climate change since the late 19th century has been human. The CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is the highest in about two million years, said the co-chair of the working group, Panmao Zhai.
The G20, the group of the largest industrialized and emerging countries, has a special responsibility, said the head of the UN Environment Program (UNEP), Inger Andersen. They are responsible for 80 percent of the previous emissions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change also names two horror developments that are unlikely but cannot be ruled out. On the one hand, there is a rise in sea level of two meters by the end of the century, depending on how the Antarctic ice sheet continues to melt. On the other hand, there is a collapse of the Atlantic overturning current (AMOC), which has already lost momentum. It distributes cold and warm water in the Atlantic and influences the monsoons in Africa and Asia, which are important for billions of people. A collapse of the system, which includes the Gulf Stream, would bring Europe a drier climate.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is drafting five scenarios, depending on the level of emissions. Among them are two in which the world will achieve climate neutrality around 2050 to 2070 and then store more CO2 than it emits. This is the only way to limit the rise in mean temperature to 1.8 degrees or below. If emissions remained the same until 2050, the temperature at the end of this century would be 2.1 to 3.5 degrees above the pre-industrial level. In two further scenarios with at least doubling of CO2 emissions by the middle of the century, an increase of up to 5.7 degrees would be possible.
“If you look at what the individual governments have promised for climate protection, you would most likely end up in the middle scenario at the moment,” said co-author Dirk Notz from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. “For the future, of course, it remains unclear whether the commitments will be kept or whether the governments will, on the other hand, step up their efforts.” According to calculations by the US government’s energy agency, greenhouse gas emissions will rise from around 36 billion tons today according to current trends than 42 billion tons in the year by 2050.
The summary of the report for political decision-makers was unanimously approved by representatives of the 195 IPCC member countries. “So the governments are in the boat, nobody can say afterwards: I have nothing to do with it,” said Marotzke. dpa
