Barely two months after the end of 2018, and about to start the year that the telecommunications industry expects as a turning point before the arrival of 5G, I will try to do an analysis, not without risks, to see which manufacturer is going to venture to teach and / or launch the first smartphone with fifth-generation capabilities on the market. And for this I am going to take as a photo the sales and market shares of the top five worldwide. In this order, Samsung, Huawei, Apple, Xiaomi and Oppo.
The CES in Las Vegas, which will begin on January 8 of next year, and the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona , which will open its doors on February 25, 2019, will undoubtedly be the showcases where some of the aforementioned firms could show their new devices. Except Apple, which always departs from these events so as not to compete in anticipation with any other brand.
Samsung is, due to the evolution of the market in recent months, who would most need to hit the table. Its latest devices, the Samsung Galaxy S9 and Note 9, seem to have not delighted users. And the figures say so. According to the latest sales data and market share for the second quarter of 2018 reported by the main analysts, in the last year (compared to the second quarter of 2017) it has lost two percentage points of market share to 20.9 percent. But what is more serious is that it has sold 8.3 million fewer units of devices in the last twelve months.
Could Samsung be the first to jump into the 5G pool with a new smart phone? It would not be surprising, but for this it would have to evolve its Exynos 9810 processor to bring it up to the level of others that have clearly surpassed it, and thus be able to improve functionalities such as facial and iris recognition, which in the S9 and Note 9 do not they finished working in all light conditions, for example, or as the camera itself and the capabilities provided by artificial intelligence (AI) itself. Land, that of the smart camera, where Samsung equipment has been surpassed with growth by the latest equipment not only from Huawei but from Google itself, with the Pixel 3 or the Xiaomi Mi Mix3 or OnePlus 6T, according to all accounts. experts.
Huawei would have it easier than Samsung, and 5G could be the key piece that adds to the world leadership in 2019, both in unit volume and market share. It comes from back to front gaining ground quarter by quarter. The data for June 2018 place it with a share of 15.8 percent, still five percentage points behind Samsung, and with sales of 54.2 million smartphones. In the last twelve months it has sold 15.7 million more units than in the same period of the previous year.
In market share, the Chinese manufacturer has gained 4.8 percentage points in one year. If the rate of units sold by Huawei increases at the same rate as in the previous twelve months, and those by Samsung decrease by the same percentage, in one year Huwei could be leading the market with a 20 percent share and a volume of 70 million units sold. Huawei has announced that at MWC 2019 it will show a 5G smartphone , and thus could the definitive blow to the market leadership with a new Kirin processor 990? And a Mate 30? with differential characteristics compared to its competitors.
Apple is the third manufacturer that sells more smartphone units worldwide. According to data for the second quarter of 2018, specifically 41.3 million, which places it with a 12.1 percent share. Despite being third in unit volume, Apple is the first in revenue volume, as its smart terminals are the most expensive. In twelve months it has barely improved in share, only 0.3 percentage points. Therefore, Apple does not need to risk a new 5G equipment in 2019. However, it seems that the American manufacturer would be changing the chip supplier to evolve from the A12 Bionic, and who knows, if it would venture to launch the iPhone XI with technology 5G for September or October 2019.
Those who would have all the ballots to get ahead, not only to Huawei and Apple, but also to Samsung, and to teach and market a smart device with 5G would be the Chinese Xiaomí and Oppo. Fourth and fifth in volume of units sold and market share, with 9.3 and 8.6 percent, respectively, they have already launched messages through their processor provider, Qualcomm, which is developing the new next-generation chips. that will be the brain of the new Chinese smartphones, and also of other manufacturers. Although I do not like to do pools, and the same there is a manufacturer that is not among these five that wants to hit the table to gain lost ground, my bet points to Samsung, Xiaomí and Oppo. But for LG or Sony, for example, it may be the last chance to re-engage the train of the top five of smartphone sales. And for OnePLus, which is gaining ground month by month, it would also be a great option to stick its head out of the big boys.
