This is what McKinsey Global Institute says in a new study that attempts to explain the global impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the world economy, analyzing how companies in different sectors behave in the adoption or not of said technology. Two conclusions stand out in the consultant’s report. The first is that there is great potential for artificial intelligence to contribute to global economic activity, and the second is that, on the contrary, this technology can widen the gap between countries, companies and workers.
McKinsey analyzed five categories of AI: computer vision, natural language, virtual assistants, robotic process automation, and advanced machine learning. Companies will likely use these tools to varying degrees, with some taking an opportunistic approach, testing a single technology and testing it in a specific function. “Others could be bolder,” says the consultant, “adopting all five and then absorbing them throughout the organization.” By 2030, McKinsey continues, 70 percent of companies may have adopted at least one type of artificial intelligence, but less than half will have fully absorbed all five categories.
Various barriers can hinder the rapid adoption and absorption of artificial intelligence and its different solutions. For example, late adopters may find it difficult to impact AI in their companies, because companies that have adopted it first have already captured their opportunities, and those that have lagged the longest are unable to develop their capabilities and attract. the talent that can help them get back on the train.
“Artificial intelligence has the potential to generate an additional global economic activity to the existing one of around 13 trillion dollars by 2030, or 16% more of the accumulated GDP compared to the present. This equates to an additional 1.2 percent growth in world GDP each year, ”says McKinsey.
The impact of AI might not be linear, but it could increase at an accelerating rate over time. Its contribution to growth could be three or more times by 2030 than it is in the next five years. Adoption is likely to be slow initially due to the considerable costs and investments associated with learning and deploying these technologies, but will subsequently accelerate driven by the cumulative effect of competition and an enhancement of complementary capabilities along with processes of innovation.
Despite all this, countries that are able to introduce artificial intelligence first could increase their competitive advantage over developing countries, capturing an additional 20 to 25 percent in net economic benefits, while developing countries could capture only 5 to 15 percent.
Also the different pace in AI development could influence individual workers. “The demand for jobs could shift from repetitive tasks to those that are socially and cognitively driven and require more digital skills, and job profiles characterized by repetitive activities or that require a low level of digital skills could experience the largest decline as a percentage. of total employment by around 30 percent by 2030. The greatest gain in participation could be in non-repetitive activities and those that require high digital skills, increasing from approximately 40 percent to more than 50 percent ”, explains the consultant.
Ultimately, AI adoption and uptake may not have a significant impact on net employment, but there is likely to be considerable pressure on the demand for full-time employment, and the overall net impact as a whole might be more limited than what many fear. Nonetheless, McKinsey suggests that total demand for full-time equivalent employment could remain stable, or even that there could be a slightly negative net impact on jobs by 2030.
“Policy makers will need to show bold leadership to overcome understandable discomfort among citizens about the perceived threat to their jobs as automation and artificial intelligence take hold. Companies will also be important players in the search for solutions in the gigantic task of training people to work with artificial intelligence ”, concludes the study.
