As the Earth warms, heat waves are expected to occur more frequently, with greater intensity, and for longer periods of time .
Rising temperatures negatively affect worker productivity and human health, but for lawmakers to take important steps to adapt to heat and comply with what researchers see as a life-saving Paris climate agreement , it is critical to present economic arguments.
“It’s actually quite easy for us to pinpoint the problem – we have rising temperatures, more frequent heat waves … it affects our physical and cognitive performance,” said Lars Nybo, professor of integrative physiology at the University of Copenhagen, Denmark. You are working on a project called HEAT-SHIELD, designed to examine the effects of heat exposure on the productivity of workers in industrial sectors that employ half the European workforce: manufacturing, construction, transport, tourism. and agriculture.
Precipitated by a series of heat waves, 2019 was the hottest year on record for Europe . Over the past five years, the continent’s average temperatures are, on average, almost 2 ° C warmer than pre-industrial figures, a worrying sign for the achievement of the Paris climate agreement to keep global average temperature increases well below those. 2ºC.
The project data suggest that exposure to external heat in combination with physical activity, which increases the body’s heat production, can lead to physiological changes that can decrease work performance, through reduced work resistance, vision, motor coordination and concentration. This can lead to more mistakes, as well as injury.
“Approximately 70% of all European workers, at some point in the working day, are not optimally hydrated,” said Professor Nybo. The solution to the problem, he adds, is intuitive: drink water, replace electrolytes and reduce physical activity, but applying these measures while maintaining productivity is where things get difficult. “You could tell the worker to stay home and drink cold margaritas in the shade to avoid heat stress,” he joked. “But that won’t help productivity.”
Productivity
As HEAT-SHIELD coordinator, Professor Nybo and his team are tasked not only with assessing the extent of the problem – modeling the projected temperature rise in Europe in the coming years and its impact on worker productivity – but also to devise and implement solutions that are specific to location and vocation to accommodate unavoidable increases in temperature.
A construction worker wears a safety helmet, which impairs the body’s ability to expel heat, but the worker thinks this problem cannot be solved because it is intrinsic to his job, notes Professor Nybo.
Overcoming challenges like this is one of the project’s key goals: devising ways that tie together heat mitigation strategies with the practicalities of the job .
For example, outdoor workers should watch for weather guidelines and plan work earlier during periods of extreme heat, take a short break every hour, and ensure easy access to water. Similar remedies for indoor workers could mean a combination of air conditioning, work in the shade, and improved ventilation, taking into account the ecological footprint of those measures.
But at the macro level, for climate change policy makers to take concrete action here and now, numbers are key, says Prof Nybo.
In Europe, agricultural and construction workers, for example, lose around 15% of effective working time when the temperature exceeds 30 ° C, which is equivalent to almost one working day per week , he notes, citing the analyzes. by HEAT-SHIELD.
If you’re a politician, he says, the numbers show there’s an incentive to act now: If you mitigate the problem, the cost will stabilize lower in the long run than if you don’t.
Excessive heat
Declining worker productivity and subsequent economic damage are prominent impacts of rising temperatures caused by climate change. But to have a complete view of the consequences it is necessary to understand what excessive heat does to the human body. It can damage organs such as the heart and lungs, exacerbate a number of diseases, and increase the risk of death.
Extreme heat can increase the incidence of heart attacks and strokes in susceptible patients due to increased blood viscosity, and increase the risk of cardiovascular death in vulnerable patients. Hot, humid days can also trigger asthma symptoms and have been shown to increase airway resistance, while warmer climates tend to prolong pollen season.
Another side effect of rising temperatures is the association with air pollution , which is the leading cause of environmental death in Europe, causing around 500,000 premature deaths a year.
Observational data and models suggest that as it warms, levels of air pollution – particularly surface ozone gas (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) – increase in some populated regions, even when Emissions of air pollutants have not increased, and create favorable conditions for forest fires.
Both extreme heat and air pollution increase the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases , which currently costs the European Union around 600 billion euros a year. If these environmental stressors continue to accumulate unabated, these costs could skyrocket.
Projections
According to Dr Kristin Aunan, principal investigator at the Norway-based Center for International Climate Research, the synergistic relationship between air pollutants and rising temperatures is not well understood and the health risk projections in Europe are not. they adequately take into account adaptation measures that can be taken to improve health risks.
“There is quite a lot of literature on the short-term impact – in terms of the daily variation of the impact of heat stress on mortality – but when it comes to a long-term impact, there is not much information,” he said.
As part of a project called EXHAUSTION that began last year, the researchers, including the project coordinator, Dr. Aunan, are focused on quantifying the risks of cardiopulmonary disease at different temperatures.
The project is also working on identifying interventions to minimize health risks caused by environmental stressors and demystify the link between air pollution and temperature increases.
Quantifying the cascading effect of cardiopulmonary diseases on the economy is key to influencing action on climate change , he suggests.
The EXHAUSTION researchers, for example, are devising a macroeconomic model that tracks increases in hospitalization and mortality in different age groups to measure the impact on the economy in different European countries. “We also have a bottom-up model, where a price is put on each premature death or hospital admission and added together to estimate the economic cost .”
One of the main questions the researchers hope to answer is the magnitude of the health impact limiting temperature peaks to 1.5 ° C, which is the goal of the Paris climate agreement, will have on health.
“I have no answer for that today but the reason we are doing this project is that we believe there is reason to believe that being able to comply with the Paris agreement will save many lives and reduce human suffering,” said Dr. Aunan. .
“When climate policy is discussed and the costs of it are discussed (it is very expensive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, etc.), you also have to consider the benefits and that is what we are doing with this project, waiting that we can contribute to the other side of the coin. “
Artículo original
This article was originally published in Horizon, the EU Research and Innovation Magazine
