A team of researchers from the University of Southampton (England) has predicted a global transformation towards birds and smaller mammals in the next 100 years.
In the future, small, fast-living, highly fertile animals that feed on insects will predominate and can thrive in a wide variety of habitats. These “winners” include rodents, such as dwarf gerbils (rodents), songbirds, such as the weaver-browed sparrow. Less adaptable, slow-living species that require specialized environmental conditions are likely to be victims of extinction. These ‘losers’ include the reddish eagle and the black rhino.
25% smaller
Researchers predict that the average body mass of mammals specifically will massively decline by 25% over the next century. This decline represents a large and accelerated change compared to the 14% reduction in body size observed in species from 130,000 years ago (the last interglacial period) to today.
“ By far the greatest threat to birds and mammals is humanity , as habitats are destroyed due to our impact on the planet, such as deforestation, hunting, intensive agriculture, urbanization and the effects of global warming. “explains Rob Cooke, lead author of the work in the journal Nature Communications .
“The substantial ‘reduction’ in species that we forecast could incur further negative impacts on the long-term sustainability of ecology and evolution,” continues Cooke.
The experts focused on 15,484 live mammals and land birds and considered five characteristics that relate to the role of each species in nature: body mass, litter size, range of habitat, diet and time between generations. In addition, the researchers used the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species to determine which animals are most likely to go extinct in the next century. They used modern statistical tools to combine all this data to make their projections and assess the loss of biodiversity.
There is still time to act
“We have shown that the projected loss of mammals and birds will not be ecologically random, but rather a selective process in which certain creatures will leak, depending on their characteristics and vulnerability to ecological change,” says Felix Eigenbrod, professor at the University of Southampton.
Amanda Bates, Research Chair at Memorial University in Canada, clarifies that “Extinctions were seen as tragic, inevitably deterministic, but can also be seen as opportunities for specific conservation action. As long as a species persists that is set to become extinct, there are time for conservation action and we hope that research like ours can help guide this path . “
Experts hope that more studies like this can be carried out to look in more detail at the long-term effect of species extinctions on habitats and ecosystems.
Referencia: Projected losses of global mammal and bird ecological strategies, Nature Communications (2019). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10284-z
Crédito imagen: Robert Cooke
