Even if CO2 emissions are completely reduced, the melting of glaciers in this century is irreparable . This has been shown in the latest study by a team of researchers from the Universities of Bremen (Germany) and Innsbruck (Austria).
The results reveal that, due to the slow reaction of glaciers to climate change, human action will have a massive impact beyond the 21st century . This means that, for example, in the long term, driving just 500 meters with a mid-range car will melt a kilo of glacial ice.
In the global agreement on climate change, the Paris Agreement of 2015 , 195 member states of the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) agreed to limit the increase in global average temperature below 2 ° C, if possible at 1.5 ° C, above pre-industrial levels. This, in theory, should reduce the risks significantly.
Scientists Ben Marzeion and Nicolas Champollion (from the Institute of Geography at the University of Bremen) together with Georg Kaser and Fabien Maussion (from the Institute for Atmospheric and Cryosphere Sciences at the University of Innsbruck), have studied what effects compliance would have of the agreement on the evolution of the melting of glaciers .
Melting glaciers have a great influence on sea level rise . According to the records, last century this growth was an average of between 10 and 20 centimeters more . However, the speed at which this threat is advancing has doubled in the last 20 years. This would reinforce other different studies, which point to the possibility of a sea level rise of about 3 meters by 2100.
The study’s calculations have taken into account all the world’s glaciers , excluding the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and peripheral glaciers, and have been modeled under different climate scenarios.
“About 36% of the ice currently stored in glaciers would melt , even without additional emissions of greenhouse gases. That means that more than a third of the glacial ice , which still exists in mountain glaciers, can no longer be saved. , even with the most ambitious and effective measures, ”says Marzeion.
Effects in Spain
According to the Summary of the hydrological year 2016-2017 in Spain, offered by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), rainfall levels have fallen by 15%. These values are alarming, as they reveal that the country is increasingly approaching a drought situation. In fact, some three million hectares will become arid before the year 2100 . In total, almost 80% of the Spanish terrain will be desertified .
To get a more accurate approximation of the global effects of climate change, scientists calculated that every kilogram of CO2 emitted today will cause 15 kilograms of glacier melt, in the long term .
Although the data for this century are not very favorable and even not remediable, it does matter that the objective of the Paris Agreement is achieved . “Gas emissions in the past have already triggered changes that cannot be stopped. This also means that our current behavior has an impact on the long-term evolution of glaciers , we must take this into account,” warns Kaser.
Reference: Ben Marzeion, Georg Kaser, Fabien Maussion and Nicolas Champollion: ‘Limited Influence of climate change mitigation on short-term glacier mass loss’. Nature Climate Change (2018). DOI: 10.1038 / s41558-018-0093-1
