Dr. Hans ter Steege, specialist in tropical forests, declares his surprise that a single hectare of the Amazon can host up to 300 different species of trees. But that amazement could turn into regret in light of recent research led by this scientist , who estimates that between 36 and 57% of Amazonian tree species could be considered endangered , if the criteria of the Red List of Threatened Species of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). If confirmed, these results would increase the number of plant species at risk of disappearance on Earth by 22%.
It is as topical as it is true to say that the Amazon basin is the green lung of the planet. More than 15,000 plant species thrive there, but it is estimated that this region has lost at least 12% of the original extent of its forests, and that between now and 2050 it could see between 9 and 28% of these disappear. This phenomenon erodes the soil, destroys habitats and alters the climate, but not much is known about how it affects the present and future size of plant and animal populations.
Ter Steege’s team has analyzed 1,485 Amazon forest fragments and has developed two possible future scenarios: the first contemplates maintaining the current rate of deforestation; the second, more optimistic, starts from a complete respect for protected areas and indigenous territories.
The first scenario estimates that 40% of the Amazon rainforest could have disappeared by 2050, and the second reduces the figure to 21%. In addition, up to a quarter of the original forest species could be reduced by more than 30% , which would include such iconic trees as cacao, which could lose half of its specimens, with the consequent effect on the food industry and economies. of the area.
But there are also reasons for hope. As Ter Steege pointed out in Popular Science, “Although 12% of the Amazon has been lost, more than 80% is still there. And about half have some conservation status. Even if we are not able to stop all deforestation, we have many possibilities to apply broad conservation policies of one of the richest land regions in the world ”.
