Theclimate changewill have a full impact on thevertebrate faunaof peninsular Spain in the 21st century, to the point thatmore than 51% of species may require specific conservation and adaptation measures to offset their effects. This is one of the main conclusions of a study prepared by scientists from the Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC) that was presented today. The work warns of the “significant contractions” that the potential distribution of some 300 species will suffer according to various climatic scenarios.
The study was born out of the need to assess how changes in the climate affect the biodiversity of mainland Spain, which hosts 50% of the biodiversity present in Europe, that is, half of the European flora and fauna. The authors of the work have evaluated292 land vertebrates representative of Spanish biodiversity; specifically, 27 species of amphibians, 33 reptiles, 61 mammals and 171 birds. The analysis has been carried out based on different emission scenarios, data from climate projections and thermometric and rainfall stations.
Miguel Araújo, main author of the work, points out that the specific measures to mitigate the negative impact of climatic changes should start with thereview of lists of threatened species, among other legal instruments. “38% of the species would benefit from the creation of dispersal corridors between important natural areas. A smaller percentage of species, 2%, could require more extreme conservation measures, such as thecaptive breedingo gogermplasm banks“, says the researcher.
The experts propose to review the threat status of the species according to criteria that include the direct and indirect effects of climatic changes. They suggest, for example,create an “orange list” with species not currently threatened, but that could become soin a few years.
The report shows that the number of vertebrates that will see their current distribution reduced by more than 30% will progressively increase throughout the 21st century.Amphibians, birds and reptiles will be the hardest hit by climate change. The work also confirms that the increase in temperatures and the decrease in rainfall in the southwest and south of the Peninsula will cause thespecies migration to the north and northeast regions. “The pattern of contraction of the potential distributions of the species from southwest to northeast and from south to north is consistent for all the groups studied and coincides with the results of the models at the European level,” says Araújo.
To facilitate future adaptation work, the scientists have prepared cards for each species and maps with their potential climatic distribution. In them it is possible to observe, for example, how at the end of the 21st century the two populations ofbrown bearthat currently survive in the Iberian Peninsula – on the one hand, the Pyrenean, recently reinforced with Central European bears, and on the other, the Cantabrian, with its two eastern and western cores – will be affected by the complete disappearance of the ideal climatic conditions for their survival.
