According to a new study published in the Annual Review of Environment and Resources , the global mean sea level could rise as much as 2.5 meters by 2100 and up to more than 15 meters by 2300. The study suggests that if we cannot control the Increased greenhouse gas emissions will pose a significant risk to coastal ecosystems throughout the world.
Researchers from Rutgers University (USA) stated that the global mean sea level has risen by approximately 6 centimeters since the beginning of the 21st century.
Experts point out that the global mean sea level could increase in the range of 42 to 85 centimeters more by 2100, 85 to 164 centimeters more by 2150 and from two to 4.2 meters by 2300, low moderate emission of greenhouse gases .
Around 11% of the current world population of 7.6 billion people live around 10 meters above sea level and, it is undeniable that sea level rise represents a serious risk to coastal populations, ecosystems and infrastructure. .
Up to 25 centimeters in the next decades
The new research estimated that global mean sea level will rise by 15 to 25 centimeters by 2050, but it is unlikely to rise by 50 centimeters or more. Projections become more sensitive from 2050 to greenhouse gas emissions . This is where the stage gets even more delicate.
“Much is known about sea level change in the past, but in the future, and much more is uncertain. But uncertainty is not a reason to ignore this challenge. Carefully characterizing what is known and what is uncertain is crucial to managing the risks that sea level rise poses to coasts around the world “, explains Robert E Kopp, co-author of the work.
According to a review of changes in sea level and projections by Rutgers and other scientists, the global mean sea level could rise to an unusual 15 meters by 2300. That would lead to an unfortunate future for populations of the world.
The scientists used case studies from Atlantic City, New Jersey and Singapore to analyze how current methods of reconstructing sea level changes in the past can limit future global and local projections. They also discussed approaches to using scientific projections about sea level and how accurate projections can lead to new research questions about this future sea level hazard.
Researchers categorically state that sea level rise in the 20th century is absolutely due to man-made global warming.
Reference: Benjamin P. Horton et al, Mapping Sea-Level Change in Time, Space, and Probability, Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2018). DOI: 10.1146 / annurev-environ-102017-025826
In the image we see parts of New Jersey and New York with 2.5 meters of sea level rise. An increase of almost 2.5 meters is possible by 2100 – in the worst case, according to projections. Light blue areas show the extent of permanent flooding. Bright green areas are low-rise areas.
Image credit: NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
