The pandemic grounded 80 aircraft in the Mexican air fleet due to the collapse in demand, but the fleet plans of the country’s three main airlines suggest that in 2022 the number of aircraft in 2019 could practically be recovered. , airlines will also face a rise in fuel prices that will bring higher operating costs.
Before the pandemic, the country’s air fleet consisted of 355 planes, of which 76% was operated by three airlines: Aeroméxico (with 125 planes), Volaris (79), and Interjet (69). However, by the end of 2020, Interjet had only six aircraft registered with the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC), while Aeroméxico reduced its fleet to 102 teams.
But contracting was not the norm for everyone. During 2020, Viva Aerobus and Volaris added six aircraft each, and by the end of 2021 they already had 17 and 20 more teams, respectively.
For this year, the plan for the three largest airlines –Aeroméxico, Volaris and Viva Aerobus, which in 2021 accounted for 88% of the country’s air fleet– is to continue adding planes.
According to its restructuring plan, Aeroméxico plans to close 2022 with a fleet of 151 aircraft, 18 more than last year. Similarly, Volaris expects to add 14 planes, while Viva Aerobus estimates to add between six and 12 planes. Together, this would represent 44 aircraft more than in 2020, and, assuming that the rest of the airlines maintain the same equipment as in 2021, they would add 354 aircraft, one less than in 2019.
For Jonathan Félix, an analyst at Verum Calificadora de Valores, the airlines’ strategy responds to an intention to go for the market that was left unattended by Interjet.
“It is a compensation, the other airlines try to cover that market, it is a different situation from the rest of the world”, explains the specialist. “Pre-pandemic passengers may not have recovered, but now the market is divided among fewer.”
This is added to the recovery of some markets in Mexico in segments of high demand, such as vacations, which in several cases have already exceeded pre-pandemic levels, adds Fernando Gómez Suárez, an analyst in the airline sector.
“Destinations like Los Cabos and Cancun have had growth well above the national average; if we were talking about a recovery of up to 75% compared to 2019, in those destinations it is above 100%”, he explains.
However, airlines will also face an environment of high fuel prices derived from the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, an item that concentrates 30% to 40% of their total costs.
“The impact on airline costs as a result of energy price fluctuations or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have more serious implications,” the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said. English) in a statement. “Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to take a hit even outside of Eastern Europe.”
Although by adding new planes, airlines have fuel savings –in several cases of around 20% compared to older models–, and even coverage to protect themselves from price increases, it may not be enough.
“We will have to see how long the price of oil will remain at these levels. No one knows, it could surely be temporary,” says Félix. “Without a doubt it is going to hit them, although that impact will not be overnight, because they have coverage, which allows the effect to not be immediate. It will not end up having an impact if it lasts a month, but if it lasts for four or five months, it could have an impact.”
