In the space of a few months, the world has undergone a drastic change . People who commuted to work and had a vibrant social life have been confined to their homes. Entire industries have stopped production and many businesses have closed their doors permanently.
The coronavirus pandemic has forced governments, recently freed from the shackles of austerity, to borrow and spend billions to sustain their faltering economies. In the European Union, unemployment rates are now rising sharply from what had been the lowest level in the last 12 years.
The abrupt and precipitous drop in productivity has seen many countries face the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression some 90 years ago.
However, there have also been positive changes. Daily global greenhouse gas emissions fell by around 17% – and in some countries an average of 26% – at the peak of lockdown . Other forms of pollution have also fallen, which has resulted in clearer, cleaner skies that could hardly be imagined before Covid-19.
Crime rates have also declined, and many experts predict that the pandemic could lead to long-term improvements in the way we work, such as greater flexibility in leveraging digital technologies. Scientists around the world have shared information and cooperated with each other at unprecedented levels as they work together to tackle the Covid-19 virus.
These drastic changes have fueled hope that a more lasting transformation could emerge from the disruption caused by the pandemic. Building on the momentum of ongoing changes and the will to act, some experts believe it may be possible for European countries to shape fairer and more sustainable societies and economies as they recover from the coronavirus crisis.
Crisis
“Climate, innovation, digitization are the keywords,” said Dr. Débora Revoltella, investment director at the European Investment Bank, the European Union’s lending arm. The challenge is to use the crisis to build a more competitive Europe and to launch a process to better internalize the effects of digitization and climate change. “
His intervention came after the virtual launch of the report Science, Research and Innovation Performance of the European Union (SRIP) , which examined how research and innovation can contribute to the social, economic and environmental objectives of the European Union. European Union and that it was published when many countries in Europe were in a situation of confinement and cases were beginning to reach their maximum level. Its findings included that while research and innovation will be at the core of the response to the crisis, they could also contribute to recovery, accelerating the transition to a more sustainable and resilient Europe.
This could include measures such as financial support packages for companies with long-term commitments to develop new technologies and make greater use of digital technology, says Dr. Revoltella.
Financial bailouts from national and EU governments should also be accompanied by green conditions that encourage companies to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions, he adds.
The European Council has already agreed on a recovery package of € 750 billion in grants and loans that will be made available to EU Member States to financially support investments and reforms in green programs, digital transitions and the improvement of the resilience of national economies.
However, scientists have been concerned about the amount that will be set aside to support the research proper from the EU’s € 1.07 trillion budget for the next seven years, which was agreed at the same time as the recovery package. .
Green Agreement
However, a central element of the Covid-19 recovery strategy is the European Green Deal , the roadmap for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and making the EU economy sustainable. By ensuring that investments and loans are made to companies that are developing environmentally friendly technologies and solutions, you should help reshape economies in a greener way as they emerge from the crisis .
“Many of the technologies and innovations already exist, such as electric vehicles and renewables,” said Professor Frank Geels, an expert in systems innovation and sustainability at the University of Manchester, UK, and one of the authors of the SRIP report. “A lot of people are pushing to use recovery packages to stimulate both a movement to go green and create jobs at the same time.”
An example that he gives of how this could be done is within the housing market. Heating residential houses is a major source of carbon emissions in Europe, so installing better insulation and heating systems in houses could provide both jobs and a reduction in CO2.
“Most houses in Europe are very drafty and it is very labor intensive to install insulation everywhere,” Prof. Geels said. “It’s a great job. As we expect a massive unemployment crisis in the next few years, there could be a lot of jobs to equip millions of houses with insulation and improve other infrastructure.”
Other major infrastructure changes will be needed as transportation systems move towards electrically powered vehicles, including modernizing the power grid and building charging stations and improved storage capacity.
Dr. Revoltella also believes that the political response of governments is crucial to shaping the future.
To help the majority of European small and medium-sized enterprises overcome the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, the EIB has announced that it will provide additional financing of € 200 billion.
Inflection point
His own research has suggested that digital technology – which has played an important role in enabling people to maintain social contacts and continue working during confinement – could be at a potential “tipping point” due to the pandemic. It predicts that digitization will become a crucial part of everyday life and business .
And it has found that digital technologies, such as 5G mobile phone networks and the services that will grow around them, could make a significant contribution to reducing carbon emissions by reducing the need to travel and improving efficiency . There are also other things that governments can be doing to help support changes that need to occur beyond direct financial support, says Dr. Revoltella.
“We have seen that supporting energy audits by companies leads to a much greater likelihood of investing in energy efficiency,” he said. “Also, providing more information in terms of the advantage of digitization can lead to a greater likelihood investment”.
Pawel Świeboda, who also participated in the SRIP report while he was deputy head of the European Commission’s Center for European Political Strategy (EPSC), believes that it is important that new technologies and innovation are more human-centered, putting the focus in changes in people’s well-being.
“Its development will also have to have a more equitable impact on the development of society, improving opportunities for all, rather than leading to success for some,” said Świeboda, who is now CEO of the Human Brain Project.
He adds that the three most important areas for research and innovation will be those related to climate change, digital technology because it has the most potential to create value, and health issues related to the aging of the population, diseases chronic diseases and new health emergencies, such as future pandemics.
But if the threat posed by the coronavirus fades as new treatments and vaccines emerge, will it be possible to sustain the momentum of drastic change? After months of disruption, many individuals and businesses are eager to get back to normal.
Struggle
Prof. Geels sees growing tension between large multinational companies trying to revert to the old status quo and those pushing for greener economies . “There are many hopes that this is the time to move forward on solutions, but I think we are going to see big struggles about what the future will look like.” Many of the big fossil fuel companies have been hit hard, says Prof. Geels.
“Airplanes are not flying, cars are not selling, the price of oil has dropped enormously. But of course it is still huge and powerful companies that are pushing hard and getting a lot of money for the bailout, “he said.
But instead of a David and Goliath battle between large traditional companies and smaller startups developing sustainable technologies, Professor Geels envisions an opportunity for greater collaboration between the two.
“It’s about getting things to the market and into people’s homes,” he said. While startups are good at innovation, established firms, he says, have the finances, the political strength, and the ability to scale. He wants to see more collaborations like the European Battery Alliance, created by the European Commission, which brings together startups and car companies. “They are also thinking about establishing a Clean Hydrogen Alliance, which could bring together oil companies. find a balance, “he said.
Part of this process will also go through ensuring that governments support the industries and businesses that their populations desire. In many cases, however, the answer involves difficult moral questions. Health authorities and governments in Europe and around the world, for example, have faced emotionally charged dilemmas in the Covid-19 crisis when trying to decide how much to spend on various interventions and treatments during the pandemic.
Behaviour
Professor Caspar Chorus, who investigates how choice behavior is modeled at Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands, and coordinates the BEHAVE project, has been studying how to turn these difficult moral choices into mathematical models that combine the science of conduct and philosophy, in a format that economists can use to make decisions.
The technique asks participants to make dozens of these morally difficult decisions, and when analyzed they can provide information about the audience’s preference.
“Mathematically we have been able to obtain what we call a utility function – you can think of this as an objective function that encapsulates the different effects of a policy and gives weight to each effect. It is difficult for people to explain those pesos by themselves, but we can learn them from the choices they make ”.
His work is already helping to inform the Dutch government about some of the difficult decisions it has made regarding the pandemic . But it has also revealed an approach governments could take if they hope to achieve lasting transformations. “People have some deeply ingrained moral values, which can be very different from the moral actions they take,” said Prof. Chorus. “Most governments think that if you can change people’s attitudes it will ultimately change their behavior, so that if you convince people that a moral value like cycling is better for the environment, then For example, then they will take a moral action and cycle more ”.
“We have found in our research that this approach is much weaker than the other way around. If people have to start biking because of an external factor such as public transportation going down, as happened in the pandemic, then they may find that they like it and are more likely to stick with it. This effect is much stronger than an information campaign. “
He believes this lesson could prove useful to governments hoping to use the pandemic to transform their economies and societies for the better. The pandemic has offered a period of intense disruption, which if harnessed could lead to lasting, long-term change. “The key is to establish the correct behaviors,” said Prof. Chorus.
Artículo original
This article was originally published in Horizon, the EU Research and Innovation Magazine
