The study, developed by experts from Stanford University (USA) predicts a new side effect of climate change: the increase in the suicide rate.
Sadly, suicide remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide. They are more numerous than homicides.
In fact, according to the authors of the new study, “Suicide alone causes more deaths worldwide than all forms of interpersonal and intergroup violence combined.”
Despite these shocking statistics, suicide is still poorly understood; it is complex, multifaceted and deeply personal. Investigating the factors involved is urgent but challenging.
Suicide and temperature
Over the years, some researchers have concluded that suicide rates peak in the warmer months , particularly in late spring and early summer. However, not all studies have identified this subtle effect.
Of course, temperatures rise during the summer, but the heat itself may not be the determining factor; There may be other seasonal factors to consider, for example unemployment.
In an attempt to shed some light on this issue, a team led by economist Marshall Burke of Stanford University in California compared suicide rates with temperature records from thousands of US counties and municipalities. Mexicans for several decades.
They also dived into the vast trove of data that Twitter can provide. They scanned around 600 million tweets, looking for messages that contained words like “suicidal,” “trapped,” and “lonely.”
The analysis confirmed that warmer weather appeared to increase the suicide rate and the level of depressive language used on Twitter.
The impact of climate change
For the next phase of their research, the scientists wanted to gain a better understanding of how climate change might influence suicide rates. To do this, they looked at the estimated temperature changes from global climate models.
They concluded that a rise in temperature in 2050 could increase suicide rates by 1.4% in the US and 2.3% in Mexico . The authors estimate that uncontrolled climate change could “result in a combined 9,000-40,000 additional suicides in the US and Mexico by 2050.”
“We have been studying the effects of warming on conflict and violence for years, finding that people fight more in hot weather. Now we see that in addition to hurting others, some people also harm themselves. It seems that heat affects deeply to the human mind and how we decide to inflict damage “, concludes Solomon Hsiang, co-author of the study, in the journal Nature Climate Change that publishes the work.
The authors want to make it clear that climate change is not directly causing an increase in suicides . However, an increase in temperature can increase the risk that an individual will decide to harm himself.
“Clearly, high temperatures are not the only, nor the most important, risk factor for suicide, but our findings suggest that warming may have a surprisingly large impact on suicide risk, and this is important to both our understanding mental health and what we should expect as temperatures continue to warm, “Burke clarifies.
Referencia: Higher temperatures increase suicide rates in the United States and Mexico. Marshall Burke, Felipe González, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Ceren Baysan, Sanjay Basu & Solomon Hsiang. Nature Climate Changevolume 8, pages723–729 (2018)
