Corona: Armin Laschet dares to make a delicate forecast – and is ridiculed

Armin Laschet (CDU) comments on the spread of the Delta variant in Germany. The reactions to the prognosis of the chancellor candidate followed promptly.

Düsseldorf – Armin Laschet is in the middle of the election campaign for the federal election in 2021. He wants to become the new chancellor in September. But on the way to the Federal Chancellery, the 60-year-old still seems to have to overcome numerous stumbling blocks. The latest example shows how he throws them at himself. On Wednesday (June 23rd, 2021) the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) told journalists in Düsseldorf: “If the incidence does not increase despite the spread of the Delta variant, but continues to decrease every week, the effect does not seem to be to be so big. “

A sentence that caused a stir in the following days, especially on social networks. Laschet, an experienced CDU politician, prime minister and candidate for chancellor, advised by a Corona staff, finally showed gaps in terms of knowledge about the virus. Numerous scientific experts disagree with his statement that the “effects” of the spread of the delta variant are “not so great”.

Corona in Germany: Laschet confused with Delta statement – instead of enlightening

The central correlation of Laschet’s statement connects the factors of the incidence and the spread of the delta variant. Even leading experts do not dare to make a final assessment of how these are determined. One thing is clear, however: the delta variant, which was first identified in India, has an R value that is around twice as high as the alpha variant, which first appeared in Germany in March 2020. This is six to seven. In this case, the R value says that a person infected with Sars-CoV-2 infects an average of six to seven other people – without containment measures such as quarantine or vaccinations. There is also the aspect of the significantly easier transmission of the delta variant compared to other mutations of the coronavirus. The example of Great Britain shows how quickly the variant can shape the infection process. There the Delta has long left the Alpha variant behind. According to the Robert Koch Institute, the proportion of delta infections in Germany is around 15 percent, and the trend is rising. This emerges from the latest report by the RKI on various virus variants.

Laschet’s thesis that the delta variant has a “not so great” influence on the infection rate and thus the seven-day incidence value is difficult to refute. However, this is also the case with the opposite. Several factors indicate that the development will only be delayed or postponed – to autumn. The seasonal summer effect should be mentioned here, as many people are currently outside. Researchers never tire of emphasizing that the risk of infection is significantly lower outdoors than indoors. This was recently confirmed by a study by the University of Oxford. As soon as the temperatures drop again, people will probably be indoors again, which will increase the risk of infection. The aggressive delta variant could thus find good conditions for an even faster spread. Virologist Christian Drosten, for example, expects the number of corona cases to rise again in autumn.

Corona in Germany: Armin Laschet with a problematic statement about the Delta variant

Apart from temporal and seasonal effects, there are also statistical delays in the incidence value. This is currently relatively low, as the RKI announced. However, the value does not reflect the actual current infection rate. It usually takes several days from the corona infection to the disease of Covid-19. In several pandemic studies, five to six days are given as the incubation period. From this perspective, too, Laschet’s statement appears to be problematic, since prognoses in this context are difficult even for research.

In addition, there is the factor of vaccination progress in Germany, which brings the population numerous easing in the summer. According to the Federal Ministry of Health, more than 28 million people are now fully vaccinated against the coronavirus. Whether alpha or delta variant: the more people are protected, the more difficult it is for the virus. Initial studies by vaccine manufacturers such as Biontech / Pfizer confirmed a high level of effectiveness against mutations. However, this fact also seems very uncertain. Viruses are changeable, very adaptable. This is another reason why research is working flat out to develop further vaccines against Sars-CoV-2. Recently, third vaccinations were even recommended as a booster in autumn. Chancellor Angela Merkel addressed this in particular to the risk groups.

All in all, it shows how vague Laschet’s statement on Wednesday was. The advisory experts apparently advised the Union’s candidate for chancellor to deal prudently with the current infection situation – and also referred to a possible delay in development. This is reported by the Westdeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung.

Armin Laschet – Mockery and ridicule on the Internet

As mentioned at the beginning, numerous users commented on the statements of the NRW Prime Minister in social networks. The best-known examples included the journalist Sascha Lobo and the Green politician Janosch Dahmen. Lobo wrote a satirical headline over a video by Laschet on Twitter: “I have the impression that Armin Laschet is a specialist in making the exact same mistake over and over again.”

Dahmen commented much more soberly: “While the Chancellor explains CT values and viral load concentration curves at all times, after 1.5 years of pandemic there are still politicians who have neither understood the latency period, hidden growth nor seasonal effects.” Laschet is one of these politicians said the doctor. (do)