A research team considers four possible corona scenarios to be realistic. A German immunologist assumes that the pandemic will be over in spring.
Kassel – when will the corona * pandemic finally end? A question that almost everyone has asked themselves in the past year and a half. However, several scientists now claim to have actually found the long-awaited answer. Spring 2022 is a possible point in time.
For example, the US immunologist Anthony Fauci is convinced that normality will then prevail: “I think we can achieve a certain general protection of the community,” Fauci told the news channel CNN. The prerequisite, however, is that the vast majority of Americans have to get vaccinated. It should be said that in the US, around 51 percent of the population, is currently slightly fewer people fully vaccinated against the coronavirus than in Germany.
In the Federal Republic of Germany, experts assume that the virus cannot be completely eradicated, but is likely to lose its horror more and more. While it is practically certain that the pathogen will continue to circulate and mutate, the question remains of how much the virus will change in the future. Therefore, four possible scenarios are assessed as realistic.
Pandemic scenario 1: New corona variant is more deadly and requires vaccination boosters
In a report, the British Scientific Advisory Group of Emergencies (SAGE) describes a first scenario in which a corona variant prevails, which causes serious illnesses more often in the majority of those infected. In the opinion of the experts, however, the vaccines should continue to protect against severe disease – even if more sick people and a higher mortality rate were also to be expected.
In such a case, so-called vaccine boosters would have to be developed and vaccinated so that the vaccination protection continues. Furthermore, measures such as maintaining distances, mask requirements and regular testing would be absolutely necessary. Another possible way out would be effective drugs and therapies.
Pandemic scenario 2: Corona vaccines lose their effectiveness against new variants
A true worst-case scenario would arise in the event of an antigen shift. To do this, two different virus lines would have to collide and exchange their genetic information with each other. Even if this would not necessarily make the virus more fatal, the vaccines would no longer be effective, if at all. Then new vaccines would be needed, including a new vaccination campaign, which of course would take a lot of time.
Pandemic scenario 3: drugs will replace corona vaccines in the long term
But drugs could also become particularly important in the next few months. Although they played a rather disorderly role in the previous pandemic, they could become all the more important and necessary if the corona vaccines lose their effectiveness due to newly occurring mutations. However, various drugs are already being used to treat long-covid symptoms.
So it could be that in the future drugs will be used in places where the vaccine does not help. Experts therefore recommend research teams to research the development of different drugs with different mechanisms of action so that different options are available in an emergency.
Pandemic scenario 4: the development towards the weakened corona epidemic
The most optimistic scenario, which the immunologist Anthony Fauci also speaks of, assumes that variants may become more transmissible, but that people become less ill after an infection. Should people become immune to it through an infection or a vaccination, the corona pandemic would develop into an epidemic.
Since an epidemic can be controlled much better and SARS-CoV-2 would gradually trigger only mild symptoms in this scenario, measures such as wearing a mask could accordingly be dispensed with. According to the UK report, this scenario is unlikely, at least in the short term, but very possible in the long term. Until then, the experts continue to recommend increased research into drugs and, if necessary, vaccines.
Epidemiologist: Corona pandemic will be over in spring 2022
However, the epidemiologist Klaus Stöhr is convinced that the corona pandemic in Germany will be over after the winter *. “From spring we will experience a dramatic relaxation of the situation”, Stöhr told the Münchner Merkur on Saturday (08/28/2021). The pandemic will then be over, “despite some infections”, according to the epidemiologist, “it will be absolutely normal again”.
The rising Covid 19 infection numbers are “an expected development”, but would “not be a cause for alarm”. Before winter, however, according to Stöhr, the question should still arise whether people over 60 should be vaccinated against the corona virus again. Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU) recently stated that they wanted to offer a third corona vaccination to all people in Germany in the long term. (Nail Akkoyun) * hna.de and merkur.de are offers from IPPEN.MEDIA.
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