On February 27, the Nigerian Center for Disease Control announced the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in the country, this being the first located in sub-Saharan Africa (in the north of the continent the coronavirus had already been detected days before in countries like Egypt and Algeria). At the time of writing this article, another case is known in Senegal and no new infections have been confirmed at the moment, with a total of ten cases throughout the African continent.
As always when an emergency of this type is unleashed, the authorities have expressed concern about the possibility that the new coronavirus will spread in countries with weak health systems and with fewer resources to contain an epidemic that, although it has a mortality rate relatively low compared to other viruses, it is transmitted very easily. In fact, Nigeria was a country in which contagion was expected to end up due to its multiple financial agreements with China.
For the moment, the truth is that the cases of COVID-19 detected in Africa are very specific and localized, so right now it does not seem that the virus is circulating freely. “In a continent with more than 1,200 million inhabitants, having ten cases spread over several countries is not a great incidence,” explains Fernando González Candelas, professor of Genetics and head of the Joint Research Unit ‘Infection and Public Health’ of the University of Valencia. “This does not mean that they will not go further, it must also be borne in mind that in those countries the capacity to detect new cases may be worse : confirmed cases are one thing and those that really exist are another. In any case, compared to other areas of the planet, in Africa there is much less incidence ”.
Factors influencing the transmission of the new coronavirus
What will happen in the future? Experts are cautious about this: at the end of the day, we are talking about an unknown virus and all that can be done is guesswork.
As we have already commented before, in general, African health systems have less capacity to control and treat any new epidemic, but there are many factors that intervene, and some of them could favor the containment of the virus.
“We assume – it is something that remains to be demonstrated – that environmental conditions in Africa make the transmission of the virus more difficult. We know that the new coronavirus is spreading in temperate countries with a specific climate and also with epidemiological conditions that greatly facilitate transmission between people with close contact, ”explains González. “This means that in countries with a high population, such as Nigeria or Egypt, if a person who has contact with many others appears affected, although environmental conditions are a barrier to transmission, on the other hand other factors would be facilitating it”, emphasizes the expert.
González also explains that the demographic structure of the population is another important aspect to take into account, since it is known that infections are less serious in younger people. Africa, compared to Europe or Asia, has a much less aging population and that factor can also help contain the spread and impact of the disease. “On the contrary, their hygienic-sanitary conditions are worse, and this works against them”, indicates the researcher. “Together, there are many demographic and epidemiological factors that can play a role: some favor the transmission of the virus and others make it difficult . The balance? We will have to see what happens. The fact is that in Africa, with worse sanitary conditions, any epidemic has the potential to cause a catastrophe, because there are not so many means to deal with it, ”the expert emphasizes.
The coronavirus in Latin America
Something similar would happen with the cases detected in Latin America, which at the moment also seem very specific and localized. “The situation is somewhat better than in Africa,” explains González. “Actually there now what they have a problem with is not with the coronavirus but with dengue, they are living a very serious epidemic. With dengue they have a much more urgent health challenge than with the coronavirus ”.
