According to weather experts, a polar vortex split will cause arctic cold in Germany in winter 2021/22. Already from Wednesday? The first prognoses are shaking.
Update, October 13th: Very soon – from Wednesday, October 13th – according to weather experts, a “Siberian ice air”, which echo24.de * reported in the October 11th update, could make people in Germany tremble. The reason for the frosty air is the arctic polar vortex, which is unstable due to insufficient sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. As a result, ice air escapes: Experts speak of the so-called “polar vortex split”, which influences the weather situation worldwide and also in Germany.
Winter weather in Germany: According to experts, it’s getting really frosty here
The weather.com portal reports that it will be cold in some places, especially on Wednesday. In the Alpine region, the weather experts assume temperatures between zero and five degrees Celsius. In some low mountain ranges in Germany it shouldn’t be so icy. The weather.com portal expects temperatures in low mountain ranges to be above 5 degrees in some areas on Wednesday. In all of Germany, fresh snow * can be expected on Wednesday, according to meteorologists.
The good news is that temperatures should rise again this weekend. According to weather.com, up to 16 degrees are possible in Germany on Friday. Although the clouds still dominate on Friday in large parts of the Federal Republic, especially in the south, the sun shows up every now and then and makes the temperatures feel a few degrees higher. But the last remnant of the golden autumn does not last long – according to forecasts, it will continue gray and frosty from mid-October.
Winter weather in Germany? Expert expects “Siberian ice air”
Update, October 11th: The polar vortex at the North Pole determines the weather conditions around the world. As the name suggests, it is a vortex around 1,000 kilometers in diameter that always forms over the Arctic in autumn and measures temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Celsius. In the first report on October 5, echo24.de * wrote about the polar vortex, the effects of which are based on the amount of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean. That’s right, climate change plays a major role here.
The reason: When there is little sea ice, the polar vortex is unstable and the freezing cold can escape. Experts then speak of the so-called “polar vortex split”, which helps determine the global weather situation. And since there is less and less ice as a result of climate change *, meteorologists assume that there will be a polar vortex split in 2021 and that ice-cold air will flow into Germany as a result. In the first report from October 5, weather experts warned of precisely this.
Winter weather in Germany: polar vortex split with “Siberian ice air”?
It was still unclear when exactly we would have to expect the effects of the polar vortex split. Meteorologist Björn Alexander from RTL in Cologne * is now daring to make an initial forecast. He also speaks about the polar vortex on RTL and talks about the lack of sea ice. “The decline in Arctic sea ice can – similar to last year or in winter – be accompanied by a subsequent weakening of the polar vortex,” explains Björn Alexander.
There are two polar vortices on our earth: one over the Arctic and one over the Antarctic. The polar eddies form in autumn and dissolve again in spring. They rotate against the direction of rotation of the earth. The polar vortex over the North Pole has an impact on the weather in Central Europe.
“A situation from which a striking weather situation can develop, especially in midwinter here in Germany.” The midwinter months range from January and February to the beginning of March. As an example of such a “striking weather situation”, Alexander cites the polar vortex split, which could soon bring Germany cold polar air or, according to Alexander, even “Siberian ice air”. A cold shock in Germany with a lot of snow is not even that unlikely.
Winter weather in Germany: Expert makes really blatant forecast
First report, October 5: How the weather will be in Germany in winter 2021/2022 depends primarily on the polar vortex. The polar vortex forms over the North Pole every autumn, has a diameter of around 1,000 kilometers, measures temperatures of up to minus 80 degrees and influences winter weather in Central Europe. If the polar vortex is stable, the arctic cold tends to be concentrated over the North Pole. If it is weakened, however, the freezing cold can escape and spread to Germany.
Since there is less and less ice * covering the oceans due to climate change, the polar vortex is weaker than ever. And the weaker the vortex, the more likely it is to split – this phenomenon is called polar vortex split. Should this happen, the split allows ice-cold arctic air to escape from the polar vortex. According to the weather experts, due to the lack of sea ice, it is very likely that exactly this case will occur this year and a polar vortex split will give us an icy winter 2021/2022, as reported by * echo24.de.
Winter weather in Germany: polar vortex split 2021/2022 more and more likely
The extent of the Arctic sea ice reached its minimum on September 16 this year at 4.72 million square kilometers, according to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). That was 1.54 million square kilometers more than in the previous negative record year 2012, according to meereisportal.de. Nevertheless, the area of the sea ice is relatively very small. It is the twelfth lowest level of a 43-year-old satellite acquisition, said the NSIDC, as reported by wetter.de.
The American weather model (NOAA) is now also forecasting an increasingly colder winter 2021/2022 – hopes for a White Christmas 2021 * and generally a lot of snow in the next few months are increasing. A few weeks ago, the NOAA model predicted a winter that was too warm – now this forecast has changed not only for Germany, but now for all of Europe.
Winter weather in Germany: Little sea ice favors polar vortex split
“December could be completely normal throughout Europe, so not too cold, but also not too warm,” explains meteorologist Dominik Jung from wetter.net, referring to the NOAA model. That should still mean a relatively cold winter, because the winter months have been too warm in recent years. Average winter temperatures should meanwhile make us shiver.
How the polar vortex will develop, when and whether a split will occur at all, cannot be precisely determined at this point in time. What is certain is that the less sea ice there is, the more likely that the polar vortex will split over the Arctic. In view of the small amount of ice, the chances are good this year and an arctic winter could be expected in Germany. * echo24.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.
List of rubric lists: © Karl-Josef Hildenbrand / dpa