The weakening polar vortex over the Arctic could cause freezing cold over Germany from December onwards. Meteorologists are not yet in agreement, however.
Frankfurt – The first snow in southern Germany heralds winter and with it the annual question of how cold or mild the winter temperatures will be in Germany. Meteorologists, who observe the interplay of highs and lows in the sky and the development of the annual polar vortex over the Arctic, have now made their first forecasts.
However, there is no complete agreement as to whether the winter will be mild or icy cold again – but there are first signs. For example, the meteorologist Jan Schenk from the weather service The Weather Channel reports good chances of an icy December and a white Christmas in a large part of Germany. The winter of 2021/2022 could even be the coldest winter in ten years. The main reason for this forecast is the weak polar vortex this year.
Cold due to weak polar vortices: Winter 2021/2022 could be frosty from December
Polar vortices arise over both poles in the respective winter half-year and ensure – provided they are strong and stable that the cold air of the poles remains in the atmosphere. If the polar vortices are too weak or if the polar vortex even splits, winds can bring mild or, on the contrary, ice-cold winter temperatures.
Schenk expects the latter this year and predicts a possible cold snap in December and January. Schenk justifies this with an early disturbance of the polar vortex this year, which has already been pushed from its position over the Arctic and is currently causing cold over Siberia. If the polar vortex is disturbed early on, the probability increases that disturbances will also occur in the further course of winter and that winds will cause particularly cold air over Germany.
| Winter in Germany t | Mean daily mean temperature |
| 2020/2021 | 1.8 degrees Celsius |
| 2019/2020 | 4.2 degrees Celsius |
| 2018/2019 | 2.8 degrees Celsius |
| 2017/2018 | 1.5 degrees Celsius |
| 2016/2017 | 1.0 degrees Celsius |
| Source: wetterkanal.kachelmannwetter.com |
Weather in winter 2021/2022: Winter probably begins with mild November
Weather expert Dominik Jung from the Wetter.net platform, however, warns against forecasts that are too early and refers to the major weather research institutes’ forecasts that are still very different. The long-term forecast of the US weather service NOAA currently points to November, which will exceed the European average temperatures for the years 1991 to 2020 by two to three degrees. For December, the NOAA forecast changes regularly.
According to Jung, the European Weather Service is currently also tending towards the fact that December could actually be a little colder, at least in the south and center of Germany. However, only the further course of the winter will show whether that is enough for a White Christmas. (ska)
List of rubric lists: © Arne Dedert / dpa
