If human societies do not dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Greenland’s rate of ice loss in this century is likely to far exceed that of any century in the past 12,000 years.
This is the conclusion of a study published by researchers at the University of Buffalo on September 30 in the journal Nature . This team used an ice sheet model to simulate changes in the southwestern part of Greenland, starting from the beginning of the Holocene epoch around 12,000 years ago and extending 80 years into the future, to 2100.
The results showed how extreme and unusual the projected losses could be for the 21st century.
In addition to rising sea levels, melting Greenland ice can also affect ocean currents and the speed of ice melting at the south pole.
Of the 14 millimeters of sea level rise caused by the melting of the Arctic in the past 50 years, half of that rise has occurred in the past eight years.
The study used ice sheet models to understand Greenland’s past, present and future. The scientists used new and detailed reconstructions of the ancient climate to drive the model and validated it with real-world measurements of the ancient and contemporary size of the ice sheet.
“We have altered our planet so much that ice sheet melting rates over a century are on the way to being higher than anything we’ve seen under the natural variability of the ice sheet over the last 12,000 years, if we don’t make reductions. severe greenhouse gas emissions, ”according to Dr. Jason Briner, professor of geology in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University at Buffalo.
“Our model predicts that the rate of mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet this century will be only slightly higher than any other experience in the last 12,000 years. But what is even more worrying is that, under a high emissions scenario, the rate of mass loss could be approximately four times the highest values experienced under natural climate variability in the last 12,000 years ”, he continues.
The results reiterate the need for countries around the world to take action now to reduce emissions, halt ice sheet decline, and mitigate sea level rise.
