2016 was the hottest year on Earth since 1880 , with a global temperature 1.16 ° C above pre-industrial levels. Now, a study by the United Kingdom’s National Meteorological Service ( Met Office ) predicts that high temperatures will not let us rest: in the next five years the global average temperature of the Earth will reach new heat records.
The last five years have been the hottest on record, as was the ten-year period 2010-2019. Six of the warmest years on record occurred in the past decade, according to research by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the World Meteorological Organization.
Temperature highs have become commonplace
If 2019 was the second hottest year on record (2016 is in first place due, in part, to the El Niño phenomenon, which sent a substantial amount of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere), continuing this trend of global warming, which awaiting us is not very different. Recall that the 1ºC warming increase already recorded since the beginning of the industrial revolution represents the fastest change in climate since the last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago.
The researchers analyzed temperature data from observing stations around the world.
Projections indicate that global average temperatures will be between 1.15ºC and 1.45ºC above pre-industrial conditions between 2020 and 2024. This is likely to surpass the annual heat record of four years ago. They also highlight the task facing lawmakers around the world just as Australia’s wildfires are still raging.
“The latest five-year forecast suggests continued warming, consistent with sustained high levels of greenhouse gases,” said Doug Smith, a member of the Met Office. “There are uncertainties within the forecast, but most regions are expected to be warmer and forecast patterns suggest more warming over land, especially northern parts of Europe, Asia and North America.”
Paris Agreement
The world is currently grappling with how to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the most ambitious goal in the Paris Agreement, above pre-industrial levels, but they are not on track to reach that goal, something that She has also brought the young activist Greta Thunberg to the table whenever she has had the chance. In fact, the United Nations scientific panel on climate change warned that the earth’s temperature is warming at twice the rate of the world average and has already risen above the 1.5ºC mark.
“Unfortunately, we expect to see much more extreme weather throughout 2020 and the next few decades, driven by record levels of greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas in a statement.
According to the UK Met Office, only a large volcanic eruption, which would act by cooling the global climate, could prevent a new heat record in the coming years.
Referencia: U.K. Met Office
