According to a meta-analysis of several published studies, answering the question of whether it is possible for animals to predict earthquakes is complicated at the moment. This is because “scientific evidence is lacking,” according to Heiko Woith, a seismologist at the German Center for Research in Geosciences.
It is quite plausible that not all abnormal animal behaviors are related to earthquakes; instead, these animals are likely responding to the mild tremors that precede the violent ones, rather than predicting the earthquake itself.
Many often wonder “if we can predict earthquakes or not, because there are many reports on the Internet that claim that an animal could do it.”
To get to the bottom of this question, the scientists examined more than 700 published studies of unusual behavior among 130 species, including insects, birds, fish, and mammals (mostly cats, dogs, and livestock) from 160 earthquakes. The records included all kinds of behaviors, including a tiger that was reportedly depressed before an earthquake.
Despite the large number of alleged incidents, actual information of value was scarce, Woith said. “A big surprise to us was that the vast majority of published claims were based on poor observational data (meaning that most people did not properly observe animals before, during and after the earthquake) and therefore , statistical scientific tests were not considered “, comments the expert.
The researchers found that 90% of all reported cases occurred within 100 kilometers of the epicenter of the earthquake and within a maximum period of 60 days. Then, they examined when and where the confusion had occurred in the region. The resemblance was remarkable, they found.
“ The spatio-temporal pattern is strikingly similar, ” Woith said. “From this, we concluded that at least part of the abnormal behavior of the animals could simply be related to the mild tremors that precede the earthquake.”
To better study whether animals are capable of predicting earthquakes, the experts suggested that researchers ask a series of yes or no questions in future experiments, such as “Is the experimental setup and monitoring procedure clearly described and is it reproducible? ” and “Is it proven that animal behavior is really unusual?”
Meanwhile, scientists are working on technologies that can detect earthquakes seconds before they appear, such as the Quake Alert app, which helped alert Los Angeles residents that an earthquake was occurring about half a minute before. to occur. It was April 5, 2018.
Referencia: Can Animals Predict Earthquakes? Heiko Woith Gesa M. Petersen Sebastian Hainzl Torsten Dahm Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2018) 108 (3A): 1031-1045. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120170313
