During 2022, the arrival of international tourists to Mexico is expected to be 36.7 million travelers, which would represent a drop of 18.4% compared to pre-pandemic levels, and with which the country would spin three consecutive years of falls in tourist flows due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to an analysis by the Anáhuac Center for Tourism Research and Competitiveness (Cicotur), foreign exchange income from international visitors is expected to reach 23.8 billion dollars, which despite representing an increase of 19.5% compared to 2021, It would still be -3.2% of what was registered in 2019.
Estimates also point to a partial recovery of indicators such as national tourism, which, with a flow of 53.8 million travelers, would be -7.5% of pre-pandemic levels. Similarly, domestic tourism consumption is expected to be 225,000 million pesos (mp) below 2019, a drop of 6.8%.
For Braulio Arsuaga, president of the National Tourist Business Council (CNET), the figures speak of an environment that has not fully recovered, and to which new challenges have also been added, such as the appearance of strains of Covid-19 that caused new restrictions on travel.
“It was a difficult, complicated year, but one that continues to show that tourism is the government’s great ally for many things: combating poverty, marginalization, a strong surplus after damage to other industries,” he said at a press conference.
Arsuaga also emphasized the tourism balance, which had a surplus of 14.6 billion dollars, higher than the deficits of other industries such as oil, commerce and manufacturing.
The estimates of Cicotur and CNET are relatively lower than those of the Ministry of Tourism (Sectur), which for this year expects the arrival of just over 40 million international tourists and the income of 24,250 million dollars in foreign currency from the same segment.
On the side of tourism Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Cicotur estimates a drop of 17.6% in 2021 compared to 2019, more than four times higher than the drop in national GDP, of 3.8%. For Francisco Madrid, director of Cicotur, this responds to the weakness of the growth of the economy, which would lead to a late recovery of tourism GDP.
“It will probably recover by 2025 or 2026. The part of the equation that is complicated is that the national GDP increases very little. The contribution of tourism is important and it will recover as consumption does, but with a growth perspective of around 2%, there we have the great challenge”, said the specialist.
