If in 2014 the global temperature in Europe rose by 3.5 ºC on average, as is expected to occur in 2080, not only would droughts multiply by seven and floods by three, but mortality would double, according to a study by the Joint Research Center (JRC) for the European Commission. The experts have imagined two possible scenarios, one in which measures against global warming are applied and the objective of 2 ºC of increase in the average global temperature compared to the pre-industrial level is achieved, and another without these measures and a temperature increase of 3.5 ° C.
For the study, they used high-resolution climate evolution simulation models and measured impacts on agriculture, transportation, human health, tourism, and energy. For economist Juan Carlos Císcar, project coordinator, the results point to an increase in illnesses and a doubling of premature mortality from heat-related deaths. The researchers also measured the socio-economic impact by region: Nordic countries, UK and Ireland, southern countries and Central Europe. The estimate indicates that agricultural productivity will decrease by 10% on average in the European states as a whole, but the decrease would be even greater in the southern regions, where it could reach 20%.
In addition, the demand for air conditioning will increase throughout Europe, but the northern nations will save on heating. This, together, will translate into a global drop in energy consumption, although it will not be homogeneous, since more energy will be consumed in southern countries. According to the study, if the global average temperature rise is 3.5 ºC, in the Iberian Peninsula and other southern areas it will rise to 5 ºC or 6 ºC during the summer months. On the other hand, if it is possible not to exceed 2 ºC on a world scale, the increase in Spain and other Mediterranean countries will not exceed 1 ºC or 2 ºC.
On the other hand, winters will be rainier and summers much drier, which would multiply forest fires by two. Floods could triple, costing billions of euros and many more people affected, perhaps double. The drought could extend to an area of 700,000 square kilometers per year – more than Spain, whose total area is 505,000 square kilometers – and affect 140 million citizens.
