The intention of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador to detonate public investment in 2023 may remain wishful thinking due to the complicated macroeconomic outlook that is emerging.
The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit projects a public investment of 1.1 trillion pesos next year, an amount 21.7% higher than in 2022 and the highest of the decade.
“We see several risks so that this investment goal is not met; First of all, there are the economic estimates that are very optimistic, and public investment, unfortunately, is always an escape valve, when income estimates are not met, because investment is cut,” explained Jorge Cano, a researcher at the Public Expenditure and Accountability Program of Mexico Evalúa .
This would be the highest investment of the six-year term; however, it is still at levels below what was reported between 2013 and 2015, according to agency data.
In this six-year term, it is recurrently observed that the planned amount of the investment is lower than what is actually observed. In 2019, the first year of government, it was up to 131,000 million pesos below what was planned, explained the specialist.
“Anticipating that there would be a delay in investment of 7%, which is what this government currently averages, we would expect that the amount of investment for 2023 will remain below 770,000 million pesos, with this the effective investment would no longer exceed 2016 , just in case it would manage to improve compared to 2017 and 2018, when the austerity measures of the past six-year term had already been established,” said Cano.
Spoiled and losing states
The analysis of Mexico Evaluates the 2023 Economic Package determines that there is no doubt that there are investment projects and consented states.
Of the 196,000 million pesos of extra investment that will be in 2023; Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco and Yucatán will obtain 109,000 million, that is, 55% growth.
The entity that will benefit the most will be Yucatan, with 37.5 billion in public investment, 542% higher or 31.6 billion more than this year. This increase is mainly due to the fact that it will receive 29.2 billion for the construction of the Mayan Train .
Compared to the average from 2013 to 2018, 17 entities will receive together, next year, 117,500 million pesos less in investment,
The main loser will be the State of Mexico , with 35.5 billion pesos, 57% less than the average in the administration of Enrique Peña Nieto, despite being the most populous entity in the country.
Other states with serious cuts are Baja California Sur, Colima and Tamaulipas , all with reductions of more than 50%. Aguascalientes, Baja California, Veracruz and Zacatecas will have cuts greater than 30%.