Back in 1972, a team of scientists from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) carried out a report whose conclusion predicted that humanity’s quest for economic growth without taking into account environmental and social costs would lead to the collapse of society. in the middle of the 21st century. Now, a new study shows that this vision could become a reality. We are on the way to this destination.
Regardless of social and environmental costs
The conclusion of the MIT study, which carried out its prediction using a computer program called “World1” (analyzing data from 1900 to 2060) was clear: without drastic change, industrial society would be headed for collapse. Now, decades later, a team of experts from one of the world’s largest accounting firms, KPMG, has made a comparison with the new empirical data and the 1972 MIT results and the results are unfortunately very similar.
“Given the unappealing prospect of a collapse, I was curious to see which scenarios most closely aligned with today’s empirical data,” said Gaya Herrington, Director of Advisory, Internal Audit and Risk, Enterprise, current study leader and head of sustainability and analysis of dynamic systems of this firm in the United States.
Herrington focused on 10 variables like industrial production or pollution and found that our mindset that emphasizes business above all else will lead to a decline in economic growth in the next decade, followed by a total social collapse by 2040.
Social collapse would begin in less than two decades
Speaking to the Motherboard website, he said that his forecast “does not mean that humanity will cease to exist”, but rather that “economic and industrial growth will stop and then decline, which will damage food production and living standards.”
It’s funny how the 1972 MIT model marks the year 2020 as a turning point for civilization. “Around 2020, the condition of the planet becomes very critical. If we don’t do anything about it, the quality of life drops to zero, “ said report leader Jerry Foster, in a 1973 ABC article. To which he added:” Pollution becomes so severe that it will begin to kill people. , which in turn will cause the population to decrease, to a much lower figure than in 1900. At this stage, around 2040 to 2050, civilized life as we know it on this planet will cease to exist ”.
In the current work, Herrington used the same computer software as Foster but the third version of the World3 program, analyzing all these variables: population, fertility rates, mortality rates, industrial production, food production, services, non-renewable resources, pollution persistent, human well-being, and ecological footprint. 10 in total as key factors in this evolution.
The most recent data stayed in tune with those predicted in 1972 , so pursuing continued economic growth is not the way to go. The models indicate that it is not possible to continue with our usual activities without reaching this collapse.
Although the 1972 simulation suggests that society is doomed, Herrington’s study adds that technological progress and increased investment in public services could lead us away from collapse. However, humanity will have to make a great effort in the next decade to change this bleak future . Not all hopes are lost. It implies a deliberate and global change of trajectory towards another objective that is not exclusively growth to avoid the worst-case scenario.
Referencia: Yale Journal of Industrial Ecology. Update to limits to growth Comparing the World3 model with empirical data 2021 Gaya Herrington KPMGLLP DOI:10.1111/jiec.13084
