The impact of forest fires is increasing in the Iberian Peninsula, due in part to climate change. A team of Spanish and Portuguese researchers have quantified the likely areas that will burn between now and the end of the century to calculate how rising temperatures will affect the proliferation of fires.
According to simulations made from climate models, the burned territory will multiply by three because of the warming. Forest fires are an old threat in our environment, despite the control measures that have been taken in recent years.
For example, the fires that started in 2003 and 2005 in Portugal registered the highest values of burned area since 1980. And Galicia is not far behind. In 2006 there were a high number of fires and scorched areas caused by human activity, without forgetting the contribution of meteorological factors and the growing impact of climate change.
Spanish and Portuguese scientists have worked directly with an indicator of fire activity (the burned area they cause) and have analyzed different alternative methodologies to estimate future trends , according to Joaquín Bedia, researcher at the Instituto de Física de Cantabria, dependent from the University of Cantabria and the CSIC.
The results, published in Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , reveal an important climatic factor in fire activity in the Iberian Peninsula from 1981 to 2005 , and not only during the summer season, but at other times associated with specific atmospheric events.
Experts estimate that, before 2075, the areas burned in the Peninsula will triple compared to today. In the northern regions, the projections of the impact of climate change will be somewhat lower : the areas devastated by fire will double.
In the northwest of the Peninsula, for example , the models project an increase of 2 to 3 ºC during the months of July and August , which implies a greater frequency of extremely hot days in the coming years.
On the other hand, the number of days with rainfall will decrease by 25% in this period. The increase will be even greater from 2051 to 2075: 4ºC during the summer months, a critical time for fires. The risk of fire is also increased by other factors such as prolonged droughts.
