One of the biggest unknowns (and hopes) that we have since the current pandemic by the new coronavirus was unleashed is whether it is a seasonal virus like the flu. Only as the years go by will we know, and until then everything will be mere predictions.
Meanwhile, a study has just been published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases that analyzes the prevalence and transmission of four of the seven known coronaviruses that affect humans for eight years. According to the authors, these four viruses cause very common respiratory infections that have a very seasonal pattern and are transmitted in a similar way to the influenza virus.
To arrive at these results, the researchers took advantage of data collected in a large-scale study that analyzed the prevalence of respiratory diseases in child care centers in the Michigan area, USA. The report collects data from nearly 1,000 individuals and Currently, the possible presence of SARS-CoV-2 in these centers is being tracked.
“Although the seasonal coronaviruses found in Michigan are related to SARS-CoV-2, we do not know if that virus will behave like them,” recalls Arnold Monto, a researcher at the University of Michigan. ” Only time will tell if SARS-CoV-2 will become a continuous presence in our lives, if it will continue to circulate in a limited way like MERS, or will disappear completely from humans as happened with SARS, ” he reflects.
In 2010, the appearance of four types of human coronaviruses that cause mild respiratory infections began to be tracked: OC43, 229E, HKU1 and NL63 . Most of the cases were detected between December and April or May, and peaked in January-February. Only 2.5% of the infections occurred between June and September, which suggests that these viruses have a markedly seasonal prevalence. Additionally, most of the cases that were most likely to be classified as severe were in children under the age of five or in adults over the age of 50.
Reference: Monto et al. 2020. Coronavirus occurrence and transmission over 8 years in the HIVE cohort of households in Michigan, The Journal of Infectious Diseases,, jiaa161, https://doi.org/10.1093/infdis/jiaa161
