A team of researchers from the Carlos III University (UC3M) has carried out a study with geospatial data to identify the areas of Spain in which there is a greater risk of contagion or that are more vulnerable in the face of possible outbreaks of the epidemic.
The results revealed that, since Madrid and Barcelona are cities with a higher population density, it is in them where there would be a greater risk of contagion. However, the analysis of other factors that are relevant to the evolution of the epidemic indicates other areas of the map that require additional protection measures: for example, Castellón, Cantabria and Guipúzcoa are the most vulnerable provinces due to their concentration of populations in risk. In turn, Toledo, Segovia, Salamanca and Navarra have the least hospital coverage with respect to the vulnerable population, according to the conclusions of this research.
“The analysis of indicators that affect the evolution of the virus or the risk in a certain geographic area in isolation could lead to incorrect conclusions or biased evaluations. Multivariate indices produce a more complete analysis, ”the report states. The multivariate indices presented allow us to analyze the development behavior of the COVID-19 pandemic based on various factors, such as the territory, the mobility of citizens or the possible spread of the virus in relation to the staggered reactivation of commercial activity and industrial, for example.
Variables analyzed
The analysis has been carried out in collaboration with TAPTAP Digital, a Spanish multinational in the technology marketing sector that offers solutions based on geospatial intelligence. Using different sources of information, the researchers identified official COVID-19 data (hospitalized, recovered, deceased, etc.) in relation to their mobility, natural vulnerability indices based on the composition of their inhabitants, changes in the population’s habits. in the context of the pandemic and geographic areas with high density.
Changes in mobility
The study also concludes that the confinement measures managed to reduce global mobility in all the provinces of Spain. Although there are differences by area, on average there was an 80% reduction in mobility: from 25 to 5 kilometers per day per person during confinement. In addition, the data also revealed that mobility was reduced for 5 days since the announcement of the state of emergency. Restriction of all non-essential activity began to significantly affect mobility about 5 days later and, unsurprisingly, had the greatest impact on mobility.
“These results can help institutions and the community to analyze different indicators and have a better understanding of the COVID19 pandemic,” explains one of the report’s authors, Rubén Cuevas, professor in the UC3M Department of Telematics Engineering. “In the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, we have been able to apply our geospatial engine, called Sonata LI, to obtain knowledge about people’s mobility, demographic relevance and interactions with points of interest or essential services throughout this confinement process, such as hospitals, pharmacies or supermarkets ”, indicates Álvaro Mayol, Partner and Chief Product & Technology Officer of TAPTAP Digital.
