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Ukraine war: military expert with gloomy prognosis on "Markus Lanz" – "More violence, more blood"

In the TV talk with Markus Lanz on ZDF, the Ukraine war is again the topic of the round. An expert admits that the Zelenyky government has no chance against Russia.

“Everyone for himself and God against everyone” was the name of Werner Herzog’s 1974 feature film about the “enigmatic foundling” Kaspar Hauser (1812 – 1833), which showed the process of civilization as a dangerous tightrope walk. In light of current events, a modification of this powerful title suggests itself: Everyone for Ukraine and Vladimir Putin against everyone…

The beginning of the 1920s has been marked by catastrophic deaths that even the worst pessimists could not have foreseen. First, an invisible enemy – the COVID-19 pandemic – is terrorizing our world and now there is a brutal war of conquest in the middle of Europe, which, although conducted in the style of former colonial campaigns, has become visible to all of us through modern media .

Markus Lanz (ZDF): Röttgen speaks of “merciless use of artillery” in Ukraine

And even before the never-ending stream of refugees – 640,000 people are listed to this day, most of them women and children – no one can and should no longer turn a blind eye. The only positive thing about this barbaric invasion is the international solidarity of the democratic states with the attacked people who are fighting heroically for their (survival) life and their identity and who previously did not show any aggression.

The sixth day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is also the dominant topic late in the evening with Markus Lanz on ZDF. In the talk show, which has been becoming more and more political for years, the moderator and all guests agree on how despicable Putin’s military attack against the former Soviet “brother country” is. Where otherwise there is heated debate, this time there is less consensus, albeit from a differentiated point of view. The war is now moving into the cities: in the metropolis of Kyiv, the television tower was shot at, as was the Babyn Yar memorial, which commemorates the terrible massacre of 33,000 Jews during the German occupation of the Ukraine.

The otherwise level-headed CDU foreign politician Norbert Röttgen struggles to regain his composure and then justifiably finds drastic words about the “merciless use of artillery”, which is reminiscent of times long past: “We are in a phase of the war of annihilation that is criminal because it is aimed at institutions targets where there are civilians. It will be a scorched earth war.” For military expert Carlo Masala, the Russian soldiers must not return empty-handed if Putin does not want to lose face. That is why the obviously megalomaniac despot wants to hit Ukraine where it is most painful: “He must ensure that the Ukrainian president resigns voluntarily, is imprisoned or dies.”

Markus Lanz (ZDF) from March 1st, 2022 The guests of the show
Nancy Faser Federal Minister of the Interior (SPD)
Norbert Rottgen CDU foreign politician
Margaret Klein political scientist
Carlo Masala military expert
Gerald Knus sociologist

Sociologist at Markus Lanz (ZDF): “Putin wants to destroy Ukrainian identity”

Gerald Knaus, the co-founder of the think tank European Stability Initiative, says what worries many: “I fear that what we are seeing is just the beginning.” Unless Putin is backed up by forces in his inner circle Moscow stopped, which according to the current assessment of the situation should be more than unlikely. “Putin wants to destroy Ukrainian identity,” the sociologist continues. However, he certainly did not expect the fierce resistance not only from the opposing military, but also from the “normal population”, who courageously and unarmed (!) stood in the streets in front of the approaching tanks. Röttgen agrees that this civil courage would even strengthen the Ukrainians’ ability to find their own identity.

political scientist Dr. Margarete Klein, an expert on Eastern Europe and Eurasia, takes a similar view: “Putin wants the leadership to change to a Russian puppet government. (…) What I would rely on would be civilian pressure.” And not only the Ukrainians practice this, but also the first protesters against this senseless war in Russia itself, who, in contrast to the peaceful crowd of demonstrators worldwide, have to fear reprisals. Some oligarchs or silogarchs (“siloviki”: oligarchs of the security organs), i.e. bureaucrats who have come to power, might soon rethink if everything they had built up and generated through international sanctions and the freezing of funds in banks, for them then would be lost.

Escape from the Ukraine war: Faeser assures Markus Lanz (ZDF) of unconditional admission

For moderator Lanz, Germany in Russia’s war against Ukraine will also be the scene. He would like to know from the Federal Minister of the Interior, Nancy Faeser (SPD), what the situation is with cyber attacks that could drive the Russian disinformation campaign forward. “We’re keeping a close eye on it,” she assures. After intensive discussions with social media giants such as Google and YouTube, these calls for participation in the war or misinformation were deleted. However, the danger would also creep up “on our streets”: “We are looking very closely at the moment to see to what extent the corona protest demonstrations that still exist are also being used for other purposes.” She also thinks that there are black sheep at every rally little, such as the fact that not everyone is a lateral thinker, right-wing radical or even warmonger against the inconsistently practiced and sometimes illogical pandemic measures in the individual federal states.

Nancy Faeser remains pale in her populism in this regard. When asked repeatedly by Lanz, she does not know how many Ukrainians fleeing the war could seek protection in Germany. However, she assures: “Of course we will take in those who come to Germany. I think that is our humanitarian obligation.” Even if, according to Knaus, there could be the largest refugee movement since the Second World War, this too can be managed. One would like to take them at their word, because the suffering of the traumatized refugees, especially the children, must be alleviated at all costs.

Less important for Faeser is the current debate on whether the suspension of conscription should be reversed. Regarding the armaments offensive of no less than 100,000 billion euros announced by party comrade Olaf Scholz, who acted more as an invisible chancellor in the first few months of his term in office, but now positioned himself more clearly: “I support the chancellor fully and totally involved”. And this despite the fact that she and almost all SPD members had sounded very different days before. The reason for this, as she repeats several times, is “that we woke up in a different world last Thursday”. Germany had done well with diplomatic solutions for years – but unfortunately that was no longer possible in the case of Putin’s aggression.

“Historical moment”: Röttgen welcomes the rearmament of the Bundeswehr at Markus Lanz (ZDF).

The only time that evening there was some resistance to what the other guests had said to Norbert Röttgen. Germany has long shown a weakened negotiating position against Putin: “We were not taken seriously militarily.” Fortunately, this has now changed: “I thought: man, that’s awesome! This is a historic moment!”, the former candidate for chancellor of the Union is enthusiastic about the speech of the head of government in the Bundestag, who wants to make the above-mentioned enormous amount available to the Bundeswehr. Pacifism sounds different. “Make love, no war”, that was probably once.

To the broadcast

Markus Lanz on ZDF from March 01, 2022 on the war in Ukraine. The complete program in the ZDF media library.

Does military rearmament really have to be in this country? Masala is more explicit than Röttgen: “Politics is going through a change, as people finally accept that there are situations in which aggressors can only be countered with the threat of using military force to help diplomacy succeed.” Military was never an integral part of federal German foreign policy; that will now change enormously.

Markus Lanz (ZDF): Did the Russians prevail in Ukraine? Military expert expresses prognosis

Surprisingly, however, he then spoke out against the reintroduction of conscription. Military conflicts are now being waged by professional armies, which have long learned how to operate highly complex, technical weapons: “In my opinion, the reintroduction of conscription can only be justified in terms of security policy if we have a direct territorial threat. We don’t have them.” No nuclear warheads are currently being moved around or even positioned. Not yet… fortunately!

Carlo Masala

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Military expert Carlo Masala in 2013. (Archive photo)

If the last few days have taught us anything, it is that you have to reckon with everything, even with what you previously didn’t think was possible. When the neorealist Masala was asked about his prognosis at the end, it was more than gloomy: “The people of Ukraine can expect more violence, more bloodshed in the next few days – and ultimately a military enforcement of Russian goals.” Stanley Kubrick’s bombshell from his brilliant doomsday satire “Dr. Strange or: How I Learned to Love the Bomb” (1964) is still ticking, more real than ever, precisely because Russia, which wants to “denazify” Ukraine, “demilitarize” it and render its alleged nuclear weapons “harmless”. , even threatened to have his finger on the button when the West tried to intimidate him… (Marc Hairapetian)

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