Summer seems to be running out of air. According to a forecast, the autumn and winter seasons could surprise you this year.
Kassel – The weather in Germany has not spoiled much this year. Instead of full sun, the sky was often overcast. Precipitation was frequent and not infrequently heavy. Extremes such as thunderstorms with hurricane gusts, heavy rain, lightning and thunder were not uncommon. And the temperatures hardly come into full swing either. A change in the weather in summer * is not in sight.
The end of August is already very autumnal. Even if it is not yet really foreseeable how the autumn and winter weather will turn out in Germany, meteorologists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the USA dare to draw up a first diagram for the two seasons.
Weather: How will autumn and winter be in Germany? Expert examines the US model
Weather expert Dominik Jung from wetter.net took a closer look at the US model. “These are all scientific things. These prognoses are feasible, but nobody should base their lives on them, ”warns the qualified meteorologist.
Nevertheless, the weather experts from overseas are setting an initial trend with their forecasts. “We can only try to estimate: How are the months going?” The answer: pretty average. Which means for Germany in view of the past few years: unusual.
September, October and November should be neither too warm nor too cold. That means: The temperatures in autumn and winter seem to have leveled off over the long term.
Winter conclusion in Germany with normal temperatures
December and January will be 0.5 to one degree too warm compared to the climate mean, Jung reads. Exceptions are the Baltic Sea coast (December), the outer northwest (January) and Schleswig-Holstein (December and January). At the end of winter in Germany, February should follow, which will also bring normal temperatures.
Jung looks at the NOAA model from the USA with concern: “Normal months that weren’t too warm or not too cold haven’t really existed for a long time. Often we were way too warm – above the climate mean ”.
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The weather expert concludes: “Therefore it could turn out that we will perceive autumn and winter as too cold. Because we are no longer used to these normal months in the past few years ”. Because people are known to be creatures of habit.
Weather forecast for autumn and winter – expert sees “exciting development”
According to Jung, it is a “very exciting development that is on the horizon”. In addition, autumn and winter should be “neither too wet nor too dry”. That would be “very positive for a real winter in our country. The past few years have always brought a very wet winter ”. At least that is how it has always been predicted.
“That often spoke in favor of the classic westerly weather conditions with the mild air masses from the Atlantic. But that doesn’t seem to be the case this time, ”explains the weather expert. So everything is a little different this year.
But, even at the end of his remarks, Jung does not forget to emphasize that these prospects are still “not a classic weather forecast”. Jung prefers to call it “monthly climatological trends”. (jfw) * hna.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
Rubriklistenbild: © Darek Delmanowicz/dpa