NewsWeather: winter chaos 2021? Experts really expect this cold

Weather: winter chaos 2021? Experts really expect this cold

Winter could feel icy this year. At least that can be speculated according to an initial forecast by weather experts.

Update, September 7th: If you ask a meteorologist in early September what the weather will be like in winter, he may well just roll his eyes. It is only logical that the view swings towards Christmas as soon as the Advent sweets reappear on the shelves of the relevant supermarkets after the summer holidays. This year, however, the experts were even faster than the chocolate lice. The American weather service NOAA dared to take a look at a long-term model back in August. And that really gives a surprising indication of the temperatures this year, as reported by echo24.de *.

The fact that meteorologists are usually reluctant to make a forecast so early is due to the fact that an absolutely precise and therefore reliable statement about the weather is only possible a few days – depending on the weather situation, sometimes hours before. Nevertheless, weather models can now use various trends to read what the weather might look like in the distant future.

Weather: “Ice Winter”? According to experts, it really gets that cold

At first glance, it seems unspectacular what NOAA was painting for the winter of 2021/22. It should be average – with 0.5 degrees too much or too little in a long-term comparison. But recently, that is exactly what has been less than average. In the past 20 years, winters have been around 1.3 degrees warmer than the long-term average.

Even the winter of 2020/21 was too warm according to the German Weather Service. At 1.8 degrees Celsius, at least 1.6 degrees above the average. And that, although the day-long frost whip from February should have stuck in our minds. After all, it brought arctic temperatures to Germany * – with a measured low of -26.7 degrees.

Winter 2021: freezing temperatures? It really gets that cold

Conversely, this allows for fierce speculation for the coming winter. Because: If it gets between 1.3 to 2.3 degrees colder on average, that could mean even frostier days. It also depends on the polar vortex, which is already picking up speed * and has a significant impact on our winter.

The alternative would of course be for it to be permanently cooler than last year. Because there was – also in February – the other extreme with a maximum of 22 degrees. One thing is certain: if the NOAA forecast is actually correct, the winter in Germany should really feel like an “ice winter”. Meteorologist Dominik Jung recently explained this to wetter.net (see update from August 18).

Average temperature in winter temperature
long-term average +0.2 degrees Celsius
last 20 years +1.4 degrees Celsius
Winter 2020/21 +1.8 degrees Celsius
first NOAA forecast winter 2021/22 -0.3 degrees to +0.7 degrees Celsius

Whether it really happens that way will become increasingly clear in the coming months. If so, according to the previous forecast, snow fans could also get their money’s worth. In combination with temperatures around freezing point and also predicted average precipitation, snow could possibly also stay longer.

Winter 2021: snow chaos? First weather forecast from NOAA here

Update from August 30th : Currently the weather in Germany leaves something to be desired. Although it is only the end of August, autumn seems to have long since reached Germany, as reported by echo24.de *. So does the early beginning of autumn herald a cold to normal winter? According to the NOAA forecast, snow fans can look forward to it. But according to the weather statistics of the last few years, the winter of 2021/22 should be too mild this year as well.

Some long-term forecasts also support this weather trend. The long-term model of NOAA is said to have calculated that the months of September, October and November are more normal with a deviation of -0.5 to +0.5 degrees, as reported by wetterprognose-wetterrechner.de . For the winter months 2021/22 from From December to February 2022, a temperature deviation of +1.5 to +2.5 degrees and, in the trend, up to +3 degrees is simulated that is significantly too warm.

So if you want to believe the calculations and weather trend forecasts by NOAA for winter 2021/22, you have to assume that this year’s winter will also be too mild. So it remains exciting!

Winter 2021: masses of snow and frost? Experts expect this weather

Update from August 25th : Winter friends are waiting for a normal to cold winter 2021/2022. According to the NOAA forecast, the chances are good, as echo24.de * already stated in a first report on August 18. But there are also other forecasts – and they predict a mild winter. In retrospect, the winter months of the past eight years have all been too warm. According to weather forecast- weather forecast.de , the average deviation of the winter months over the past 20 years was around +1.3 degrees above the long-term mean.

In addition, there is less and less snow and frost in the middle locations between 300 and 600 meters. The frost line fluctuated in the last few winters mostly between 500 and 800 meters, in the past it was between 300 and 600 meters. If you take this development into account and add further statistical figures, a clear trend for the winter season emerges. In short: According to these statistics, a too warm winter 2021/2022 is more likely to be expected.

Winter weather 2021/2022: Different forecasts – first expert forecasts

But: The weather rarely sticks to statistics. That is why it remains exciting – and winter friends still have to be patient and be surprised how winter 2021/2022 actually turns out.

Winter 2021: masses of snow and mega frost? The expert forecast

First report from August 18th : The weather has been playing nasty tricks on Europe all summer long. First Germany had to tremble because a flood of the century destroyed entire cities in the Eifel and claimed countless lives, then massive forest fires followed in Greece and Turkey. A sign of climate change *, as reported by echo24.de *. But does the hot summer also mean a mild winter?

Not if the weather experts from the American weather service NOAA have their way. With the help of state-of-the-art technology, this institution has already created a forecast of what winter 2021/2022 could look like – and the assessment of the meteorologists has surprised.

Winter 2021/2022: long-term models with an astonishing forecast

According to the weather model of the American experts, Germany could also expect a relatively icy winter. According to the wetter.net meteorologist Dominik Jung, the winter forecasts of the long-term models in recent years have been well above the climate mean – that is, they were too warm. This is no longer the case in the NOAA forecast for the coming winter 2021/2022. For the first time in a long time, the experts are predicting an average winter – which many Germans might find too cold.

“A normal average winter would probably be too cool a winter for most of us,” explains Dominik Jung in his analysis of the NOAA winter forecast. According to the meteorologist, many people are no longer used to normal winter temperatures. But winter sports fans could have their real joy with the coming cold season, because according to the forecast of the US experts, snow could also fall in masses this year.

Winter forecast 2021/2022: good news for winter sports fans?

wetter.net meteorologist Jung regards this forecast for the precipitation in the coming winter as surprising. He explains that on the NOAA forecast chart you can see that it is “neither too dry nor too wet”. So it was a very average winter. Only in the Alps does the weather model show a lot of precipitation. According to Jung, “maybe a very snowy winter in the Alps.”

Winterwetter wird dieses Jahr laut ersten Prognosen wieder möglich. (Symbolbild)

+

According to initial forecasts, winter weather will be possible again this year. (Symbol image)

However, this forecast is “really just a first, very rough trend”, assures Jung. According to the expert, the seasonal trends can only try to estimate whether a season will be warmer or cooler than the average. “Nobody should plan their vacation accordingly,” says Jung, the seasonal forecasts from the weather services are “just monthly climatological trends”. In the end, you have to wait and see what will really come of it.

Winter forecast 2021/2022: No reliable information possible yet

This is also confirmed by the German Weather Service (DWD) . He explains: A climate forecasting system cannot predict the weather for the coming weeks, months and years for a specific day at a specific location. Rather, the goal is to predict climatic tendencies over longer periods of time and larger areas and to present them as deviations from a normal state.

That’s why it remains exciting. But first it gets warmer again. The last warm summer days are coming up in Baden-Württemberg *. This is reported by echo24.de * in a separate article. Even at fr.de * one expects up to 30 degrees * on Saturday (August 21) and Sunday (August 22) in some regions. But the forecast for autumn * also looks good, according to weather experts. Accordingly, the beginning of autumn could bring again mild temperatures and even a few warmer days. * echo24.de and fr.de are offers from IPPEN.MEDIA.

List of rubric lists: © Graham Hughes / dpa

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