Will March be a record month? Weather experts speak of a possible "century drought"

The weather forecasts for Germany remain exciting – also in March. Is summer already coming? Experts are concerned about the first trends.

Kassel – In summary, the weather in February was predominantly cold, wet and gray. Only rarely did the sun make it through the dense cloud cover. Many people therefore longed for spring-like temperatures. And so far, March has actually shown its mild, sunny side. It rarely rained in Germany. If things continue like this, the spring month could be really summery. However, there is one detail that worries the meteorologists.

The weather in Germany remains exciting. After winter literally fell through and was surprisingly mild, a deviation for March is now in the offing. Accordingly, it could be significantly too dry and warm – experts are currently even expecting that the month could be the driest since 1881 or even of all times. Even temperatures above 20 degrees Celsius are possible.

After another low will pass over central Germany on Wednesday (March 17th, 2022), which will bring rain from Saarland via Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse to Saxony, it could be rain this month, according to qualified meteorologist Dominik Jung , managing director of the Q.met weather service, explained to the weather portal wetter.net. “These are bad prospects in terms of precipitation. After the current rainfall today, there could still be the last few drops in the north on Thursday and then drought would be announced until the end of the month.”

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Weather in Germany in March: Experts worried about the trend

“If the drought continues until the end of the month, it would be a drought of the century. March has never been so dry since 1881,” explained Dominik Jung. Many rivers would already have low water levels. According to the weather expert, the Rhine near Worms is said to have fallen below the 1 meter mark. “Lake Constance is now struggling more and more with low water. (…) Let’s hope that this won’t be a bad omen for the coming summer of 2022,” warned Jung.

In March 2021, maximum values were measured in Germany. There was a new March record with 26.7 degrees in Cologne, in Frankfurt a whopping 25.1 degrees were reached – real summer days. According to the current climate trend, the first month of spring could also be significantly too warm in 2022. The American long-term model NOAA calculates deviations of 2 degrees above the average climate for the years 1991 to 2020 for Germany. The European ECMS model is around 1.5 degrees too warm.

“The long-term weather models are already indicating values well above 20 degrees, at the end of March maybe even 25 degrees. That would be the first day of summer. Of course, there can also be a few cool to cold days with snow in March and April, but nothing is in sight at the moment, ”said qualified meteorologist Dominik Jung to wetter.net.

Weather in March: Significantly too dry scenario – summer days in the first spring month

But the trend for March is worrying in another way. Because it could not only be much too warm, but also too dry. The European long-term model ECMWF indicates a scenario that is clearly too dry, explains meteorologist Georg Haas from wetter.com. The drought in March could not only affect Germany, but also large parts of Europe and especially the Iberian Peninsula. This can be difficult for agriculture. The risk of forest fires is also increasing.

The expert summarizes: “We can expect an early spring this year”. Especially in the last third of March, summer days are quite possible. And Jung also speaks of an exciting weather development. It remains to be seen whether the trend will continue in March 2022. But for nature and agriculture in particular, too dry and warm weather could become a problem. (svw) *hna.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.

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