It’s a vague forecast – meteorologists are already looking to the coming winter now, in August. And what they see is amazing.
The weather has been playing nasty tricks on Europe all summer long. First Germany had to tremble because a flood of the century destroyed entire cities in the Eifel and claimed countless lives, then massive forest fires followed in Greece and Turkey. A sign of climate change *, as reported by echo24.de *. But does the hot summer also mean a mild winter?
Not if the weather experts from the American weather service NOAA have their way. With the help of state-of-the-art technology, this institution has already created a forecast of what winter 2021/2022 could look like – and the assessment of the meteorologists has surprised.
Winter 2021/2022: long-term models with an astonishing forecast
According to the weather model of the American experts, Germany could also expect a relatively icy winter. According to the wetter.net meteorologist Dominik Jung, the winter forecasts of the long-term models in recent years have been well above the climate mean – that is, they were too warm. This is no longer the case in the NOAA forecast for the coming winter 2021/2022. For the first time in a long time, the experts are predicting an average winter – which many Germans might find too cold.
“A normal average winter would probably be too cool a winter for most of us,” explains Dominik Jung in his analysis of the NOAA winter forecast. According to the meteorologist, many people are no longer used to normal winter temperatures. But winter sports fans could have their real joy with the coming cold season, because according to the forecast of the US experts, snow could also fall in masses this year.
Winter forecast 2021/2022: good news for winter sports fans?
wetter.net meteorologist Jung regards this forecast for the precipitation in the coming winter as surprising. He explains that on the NOAA forecast chart you can see that it is “neither too dry nor too wet”. So it was a very average winter. Only in the Alps does the weather model show a lot of precipitation. According to Jung, “maybe a very snowy winter in the Alps.”
However, this forecast is “really just a first, very rough trend”, assures Jung. According to the expert, the seasonal trends can only try to estimate whether a season will be warmer or cooler than the average. “Nobody should plan their vacation according to this”, says Jung, the seasonal forecasts of the weather services are “just monthly climatological trends”. In the end, you have to wait and see what will really come of it.
Winter forecast 2021/2022: No reliable information possible yet
This is also confirmed by the German Weather Service (DWD) . He explains: A climate forecasting system cannot predict the weather for the coming weeks, months and years for a specific day at a specific location. Rather, the goal is to predict climatic tendencies over longer periods of time and larger areas and to present them as deviations from a normal state.
That’s why it remains exciting. But first it gets warmer again. The last warm summer days are coming up in Baden-Württemberg *. This is reported by echo24.de * in a separate article. Even at fr.de * one expects up to 30 degrees * on Saturday (August 21) and Sunday (August 22) in some regions. But the forecast for autumn * also looks good, according to weather experts. Accordingly, the beginning of autumn could bring again mild temperatures and even a few warmer days. * echo24.de and fr.de are offers from IPPEN.MEDIA.
List of rubric lists: © Daniel Karmann / dpa