It’s a vague forecast – meteorologists are already looking to the coming winter now, at the end of August. And what they see is amazing.
Update from August 30th : Currently the weather in Germany leaves something to be desired. Although it is only the end of August, autumn seems to have long since reached Germany, as reported by echo24.de *. So does the early beginning of autumn herald a cold to normal winter? According to the NOAA forecast, snow fans can look forward to it. But according to the weather statistics of the last few years, the winter of 2021/22 should be too mild this year as well.
Some long-term forecasts also support this weather trend. The long-term model of NOAA is said to have calculated that the months of September, October and November are more normal with a deviation of -0.5 to +0.5 degrees, as reported by wetterprognose-wetterrechner.de . For the winter months 2021/22 from From December to February 2022, a temperature deviation of +1.5 to +2.5 degrees and, in the trend, up to +3 degrees is simulated to be significantly too warm.
So if you want to believe the calculations and weather trend forecasts by NOAA for winter 2021/22, you have to assume that this year’s winter will also be too mild. So it remains exciting!
Winter 2021: masses of snow and frost? Experts expect this weather
Update from August 25th : Winter friends are waiting for a normal to cold winter 2021/2022. According to the NOAA forecast, the chances are good, as echo24.de * already stated in a first report on August 18. But there are also other forecasts – and they predict a mild winter. In retrospect, the winter months of the past eight years have all been too warm. According to weather forecast- weather forecast.de , the average deviation of the winter months over the past 20 years was roughly +1.3 degrees above the long-term mean.
In addition, there is less and less snow and frost in the middle locations between 300 and 600 meters. The frost line fluctuated in the last few winters mostly between 500 and 800 meters, in the past it was between 300 and 600 meters. If you take this development into account and add further statistical figures, a clear trend for the winter season emerges. In short: According to these statistics, a too warm winter 2021/2022 is more likely to be expected.
Winter weather 2021/2022: Different forecasts – first expert forecasts
But: The weather rarely sticks to statistics. That is why it remains exciting – and winter friends still have to be patient and be surprised how winter 2021/2022 actually turns out.
Winter 2021: masses of snow and mega frost? The expert forecast
First report from August 18th : The weather has been playing nasty tricks on Europe all summer long. First Germany had to tremble because a flood of the century in the Eifel destroyed entire cities and claimed countless lives, then massive forest fires followed in Greece and Turkey. A sign of climate change *, as reported by echo24.de *. But does the hot summer also mean a mild winter?
Not if the weather experts from the American weather service NOAA have their way. With the help of state-of-the-art technology, this institution has already created a forecast of what winter 2021/2022 could look like – and the assessment of the meteorologists has surprised.
Winter 2021/2022: long-term models with an astonishing forecast
According to the American experts’ weather model, Germany could also expect a relatively icy winter. According to the wetter.net meteorologist Dominik Jung, the winter forecasts of the long-term models in recent years have been well above the climate mean – that is, they were too warm. This is no longer the case in the NOAA forecast for the coming winter 2021/2022. For the first time in a long time, the experts are predicting an average winter – which many Germans might find too cold.
“A normal average winter would probably be too cool a winter for most of us,” explains Dominik Jung in his analysis of the NOAA winter forecast. According to the meteorologist, many people are no longer used to normal winter temperatures. But winter sports fans could have their real joy with the coming cold season, because according to the forecast of the US experts, snow could also fall in masses this year.
Winter forecast 2021/2022: good news for winter sports fans?
wetter.net meteorologist Jung regards this forecast for the precipitation in the coming winter as surprising. He explains that on the NOAA forecast chart you can see that it is “neither too dry nor too wet”. So it was a very average winter. Only in the Alps does the weather model show a lot of precipitation. According to Jung, “maybe a very snowy winter in the Alps.”
However, this forecast is “really just a first, very rough trend”, assures Jung. According to the expert, the seasonal trends can only try to estimate whether a season will be warmer or cooler than the average. “Nobody should plan their vacation accordingly,” says Jung, the seasonal forecasts from the weather services are “just monthly climatological trends”. In the end, you have to wait and see what will really come of it.
Winter forecast 2021/2022: No reliable information possible yet
This is also confirmed by the German Weather Service (DWD) . He explains: A climate forecasting system cannot predict the weather for the coming weeks, months and years for a specific day at a specific location. Rather, the goal is to predict climatic tendencies over longer periods of time and larger areas and to present them as deviations from a normal state.
That’s why it remains exciting. But first it gets warmer again. In Baden-Württemberg, the last warm summer days are likely to come *. This is reported by echo24.de * in a separate article. Even at fr.de * one expects up to 30 degrees * on Saturday (August 21) and Sunday (August 22) in some regions. But the forecast for autumn * also looks good, according to weather experts. Accordingly, the beginning of autumn could bring again mild temperatures and even a few warmer days. * echo24.de and fr.de are offers from IPPEN.MEDIA.
List of rubric lists: © Graham Hughes / dpa