The polar vortex determines how winter will be in Germany. This will already pick up speed from autumn. Is it already foreseeable how much snow there will be?
Update from October 1st: The polar vortex affects how much snow there is in winter in Germany. It forms over the North Pole at the beginning of autumn and is responsible for how cold it gets in Europe. If the eddy splits, the so-called polar vortex split can cause arctic cold in Germany, as the cold air breaks out of the eddy. If there is a lot of precipitation, there will be a lot of snow. What are the experts’ forecasts for winter 2021/2022 in Germany?
The polar vortex could lead to a strong ingress of cold air this year, explains meteorologist Veronika Krieger at The Weather Channel : “The polar vortex should be weak, especially at the beginning of winter, and this alone increases the likelihood of a split. In addition, a long-distance connection between the equator and the pole favors this split. “
Weather in winter 2021: Arctic cold in Germany? The snow forecast
Once the polar vortex has split, icy air flows into Germany. But what about precipitation? Precipitation forecasts are not really meaningful, reliable and constant at this point in time. A clear trend for the winter of 2021/2022 has not yet been seen and the European and American weather models are partly in disagreement.
What we do know, however, is that the Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the world as a result of climate change *. The temperature differences are therefore no longer so great – the polar vortex becomes more unstable and weakened, as reported by wetter.de. This increases the likelihood of extreme weather. That could be heavy rainfall or winter storms, which, according to wetter.de , “can bring record snow at high altitudes”.
However, it is best to just wait and see instead of dealing with wild speculations. Because the long-term forecasts are too uncertain and change regularly. On the other hand, short-term forecasts, such as a 14-day trend, are more reliable. Even the predictions for October 2021 * are not set in stone. It will be a while before winter begins in Germany and the hope for a white Christmas should by no means be given up too early.
Snow forecast for winter 2021: polar vortex is picking up speed
First report from August 31st: Looking out the window, it is hard to believe that the weather is improving again this year. But according to the German Weather Service (DWD) there should actually be a sunny and mostly dry late summer * in Germany. While the uncomfortable autumn weather is being chased away again, the course for winter 2021/2022 is currently being set over the North Pole. The polar vortex is already picking up speed. echo24.de * explains what that means for this winter.
Winter 2021: Polar vortex is picking up speed – what that means for the weather in Germany
How frosty or mild a winter becomes depends on the polar vortex. But what actually is a polar vortex? The polar vortex forms at the beginning of autumn – right now at this time when the days here are getting shorter and the sun barely reaches the North Pole. There are two polar vortices on Earth: one over the Arctic and one over the Antarctic. Polar eddies are huge high altitudes with a diameter of around 1,000 kilometers. The temperature of the eddy high up can sometimes be as low as minus 80 degrees.
The polar vortex over the North Pole is relevant for the course of winter in Germany. The eddies are differently pronounced every year. If the polar vortex is unstable, a polar vortex split can occur, which then causes arctic cold in Germany. If there is also a lot of precipitation, there is a lot of snow – just like last year in the Black Forest. In winter 2020/2021 *, the polar vortex broke in November and divided.
But back to winter 2021/2022: How strong the polar vortex will develop this year cannot yet be said at this point in time. Also not whether there will be a polar vortex split. Incidentally, this is not so rare – as the weather expert Paul Heger explained on the weather portal wetter.com last year, polar vortex splits occur “on average about every two years”. “But with great variability that can hardly be estimated. There were only two polar vortex splits in the 1990s. In the 2000s there were nine, ”explains the meteorologist. As reported by bw24.de , the onset of winter should nevertheless take place earlier than expected *.
Polar vortex 2021/2021: How will the weather be this winter in Germany?
An initial forecast for winter 2021/22 * is already available from the American weather model NOAA – and at first glance it is not particularly promising for all winter and snow fans. Because according to the NOAA model, the winter in Germany should be on average warm. But: According to the wetter.net meteorologist Dominik Jung, the winter forecasts of the long-term models in the past few years have been significantly above the climate mean – that is, they were too warm.
For the first time in a long time, the experts are predicting an average warm winter – which many Germans might find too cold. “A normal average winter would probably be too cool a winter for most of us,” explains Dominik Jung in his analysis of the NOAA winter forecast. NASA’s forecast, however, puts a damper – according to it, this winter, as in previous years, will also be too warm.
So far, the prognoses are not really clear or certain. A clear trend for the winter of 2021/2022 has not yet emerged and the weather models are partly divided. There should be more reliable forecasts as soon as the polar vortex over the North Pole has finished forming. * echo24.de and bw24.de are offered by IPPEN.MEDIA.
List of rubric lists: © Marcel Kusch / dpa