In the final chapters of the Bible, it is stated that the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse will arrive to destroy vast swaths of the planet. Apparently, the biblical image of the four horsemen of the Apocalypse: War, Famine, Plague and Death has a new face. And more complex than this. Many scientists wonder if it is a simple virus or a symptom of something much deeper, evidence of an increasingly hyper-connected world and therefore more fragile and volatile.
Now, research developed at the University of Singapore indicates that the dangers that threaten humanity are more complex. The “four horsemen” that are leading our civilization towards its possible self-destruction are:
- Overpopulation
- The globalization
- Hyperconnectivity
- Concentration of supply chains
The study describes the convergence of these four broad, but easily identifiable, pathologically interconnected systemic conditions, where a pandemic is just one of many possible triggers.
Unprecedented catastrophe probability
“The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed critical pathologies lurking within the dynamic global system of commerce, governance and public health,” said Kang Hao Cheong of the Singapore University of Technology and Design and co-author of the work published by BioEssays magazine.
From this heuristic framework, a pandemic can metastasize to other vital domains, such as economic and geopolitical stability and other second and third order multiplier effects that could turn into an unprecedented catastrophe.
“Even if COVID-19 is not the direct cause of a global catastrophe, like the iceberg that split off the Titanic, it reveals to us that we are navigating a dangerous sea that has more and more icebergs,” says Michael C. Jones, also a co-author of the study.
The solution?
Experts state that the only plausible solution is through change : a 180-degree modification based on the precautionary principle established by the European Union in 2000. What does this precautionary principle say? That preventive measures should be taken in the event of any suspicion of danger or threat of a serious nature despite the lack of sufficient scientific evidence to support this warning.
And it is that strategies such as carrying out financial bailouts of global magnitude to avoid the ruin caused by COVID-19 can turn the problem into something even bigger, like a snowball running down the mountain. In such a way that there is no way to stop it and that, for us, it becomes a catastrophic event.
” Biological theory and the science of complexity will play an important role in guiding the paradigmatic transformations necessary to defuse the time bomb. We will have to build institutions and sustainable social behaviors that mimic life, rather than systems that defy principles. of the living state, in which living things anticipate and avoid ruin to achieve persistence, “Jones concluded.
Referencia: Kang Hao Cheong et al, Introducing the 21st Century’s New Four Horsemen of the Coronapocalypse, BioEssays (2020). DOI: 10.1002/bies.202000063
