According to research published in Nature Climate Change, if the increase in greenhouse gas emissions continues, by the end of this century the increase in temperatures and the intense humidity from the gulf will have made that area almost uninhabitable, unless the next World Climate Conference , to be held in Paris between November 30 and December 11, is successful.
A protocol should come out of that meeting to replace the Kyoto protocol, with the aim of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by between 40 and 70% by 2050. It would be the only way that global warming does not exceed 2 ° C on average over the next few decades. Otherwise, this data could reach 4.8 ° C. In such conditions, the Persian Gulf would suffer recurring heat waves that would reach 50 and 60 ° C , more than modern buildings and their air conditioners and methods temperature regulation can withstand.
The authors of the study explain that humans adapt to ‘dry temperatures’ – those measured with a conventional thermometer whose bulb is dry – very high, thanks to sweating that helps to cool the body; but this is the case as long as the ‘humid air temperature’ – a measure that mixes the relative humidity of the air and the dew temperature – does not exceed 35 ° C. This threshold defines the survival limits for a healthy human in well-ventilated outdoors.
Researchers – MIT’s Jeremy S. Pal and Elfatih AB Eltahir – have used current field measurements coupled with climate models, and have concluded that the Persian Gulf will exceed that temperature threshold by the end of the 21st century. This will seriously affect the livability of the region and could result in mass migrations, if sustainable policies or technological advances do not prevent it.
