What would happen if the Antarctic temperature increased 1ºC?

The increase in temperature, as a result of climate change, that the planet is experiencing is already having an impact on certain ecosystems on Earth, and one of the most immediate and alarming is that of the Antarctic Ocean. Recent events show that profound changes are taking place in this ecosystem.

But what if your global temperature increased by one degree Celsius? It may seem little, but temperature, understood as global temperature, has not unimportant effects.

This is what a group of researchers has asked themselves, observing the impacts on a marine complex that has warmed between one and two degrees Celsius. They call it “the most realistic ocean warming experiment carried out to date” , and this is attested by the document, published in the journal Current Biology.

So Gail Ashton of the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center and her team heated an area of the seabed around Rothera Research Station and observed what happened. The result: the effects of climate change far exceed expectations.

The experiment showed that with a temperature rise of one degree Celsius, the population of a single pioneer species of bryozoa ( Fenestrulina rugula ) skyrocketed , and ended up dominating the community, leading to a reduction in overall species diversity and uniformity in population. within only two months. On the other hand, individuals of a marine worm, Romanchella perrieri, also grew to an average size 70% larger than those under environmental conditions.

The procedure they used was to roll out settling panels to heat a thin layer of water a degree or two above room temperature. Those increases in global temperature are expected within the next 50 and 100 years, respectively.

After warming a natural seafloor in the Southern Ocean by just a degree or two, the researchers observed massive massive impacts on a marine ensemble, as growth rates nearly doubled.

Gail Ashton has expressed surprise at the results of the study: “I did not expect such a significant difference observable in Antarctic communities. I have spent most of my career working in temperate climates where communities experience much greater temperature fluctuations and did not expect such an exact answer in just one degree centigrade of change. “

In addition, the responses of the organisms to a temperature increase of two degrees Celsius were even more variable. Growth rate responses to warming differed between species, ages, and seasons. Species generally grew faster in a warming typical of the Antarctic summer. However, different responses between species were observed in March, when both food availability for suspension feeders and room temperature decreased, the researchers report.

Predicting how entire organisms and communities will respond to climate change in the future remains a major challenge. The researchers say the findings suggest that climate change could have even greater effects on polar marine ecosystems than had been anticipated. As the planet warms, there will be winners (like the Bryozoan Fenestrulina rugula), but also losers.